Moldova that we are losing

Information and Documentation Centre on NATO in Moldova in cooperation with (Polish Embassy) Republic of Poland Embassy in Moldova (NATO Contact Point) and NATO Public Diplomacy Division last week organized an international conference in Chisinau titled “NATO Summit in Warsaw: Tackling New Threats.”

The exclusive nature of the participants led to an interesting discussion, but that is not the main conclusion of my visit to Ukraine’s southwestern neighbor.

As we know, Moldova is a state with constitutionally enshrined neutrality. The lack of a common border with Russia contributes to this status, although the frozen conflict in Transnistria does not allow the official Chisinau to not pay attention to the Kremlin’s behavior. That’s especially after a showing defrosting of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, which seemed almost extinct. In fact, Moscow doesn’t really hide the fact that Tiraspol is considered an irritant, which may allow making the Moldovan authorities more compliant. Judging by the trends in the internal policy of Moldova, the second half of 2016 can become a serious challenge for the country when it will be holding elections, just as Transnistria and Gagauzia.

The conference was interesting due to the speeches of the participants. Moldova’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs and European Integration Lilian Darii and Defense Minister Anatol Salaru emphasized that Moldova's neutrality does not prevent it from developing relations with NATO.

United States Ambassador to Moldova James Pettit noted that Washington is forced to conduct negotiations with Moscow instead of showing the aggressor state its place. Polish diplomat Malgorzata Kosiura-Kazmierska stressed that Russia is no longer a strategic partner for NATO, while the Kremlin's actions give rise to the challenges that need to be responded quickly and effectively.

One of the most eloquent participants, a Romanian scholar and advisor to ex-president Basescu on security issues Iulian Chifu, called Russia “a sick - not a strong - state," which behaves very aggressively. He noted that because of the aggressive policy of the Kremlin, the West and Russia have actually returned to the policy of peaceful coexistence of the Cold War era. He called for a clear and effective response to Russian actions. I must say that the expert community was not only more eloquent but also frank in their assessments of the crisis the European security system, caused by Russian aggression in Crimea and Donbas.

Speaking about the hybrid response to a hybrid war based on the Ukrainian experience, I said that the Russian president today is still calling the Ukrainians "brotherly people," gave the most striking examples of the manifestations of the Russian hybrid aggression, and stressed that one shouldn’t expect for the aggressor’s surrender in a traditional format – Ukraine faces a hard and exhausting struggle. And in this struggle, by and large, not only the military component is important, but also the country’s keenness to internal changes.

Moldova is seen as Ukraine’s natural ally, although bilateral relations of the two countries today do not look serene. On May 13, Chisinau imposed restrictions on certain Ukrainian imports to protect its own market. However, economic problems in bilateral relations are not a priority. Unfortunately, the Ukrainian diaspora in Moldova, along with the Bulgarians and the Gagauz, bears pro-Russian views, and the Kremlin is using it in the struggle for influence in Moldova. The abundance of Russian TV channels, Russian media preferences – we have already seen all of this in Ukraine on the eve of the Russian aggression, so our experience could actually be useful to our neighbors.

Unfortunately, Kyiv has for a long period perceived Chisinau and Bucharest as opponents. I suppose that the Russian special services skillfully took advantage of the ICJ decision in a territorial dispute over the Serpent Island, presenting Romania as a "false adversary" to cover up their own activity. In turn, Moldova caused some jealousy on the part of Ukraine due to higher pace of rapprochement with the European Union. Besides, there was unfortunately not enough common sense to try to restore GUAM as a backbone of the Eastern Partnership. What can I say, if both in Ukraine and Moldova, people often get the news about their neighbor through the Russian media, which can hardly be called unbiased.

The prospect of pro-Russian politicians coming to power in Moldova today looks quite realistic. A high profile banking scandal with the disappearance of a billion euros (a sum quite impressive for Moldova) plays into their hands, catching a significant part of the political pro-European camp. Incidentally, this is a good lesson for Ukraine: pro-European rhetoric is not enough for the effective reform and the fight against corruption. In this case it is doubtful that Romania, in which Russia has failed to create a strong net of agents of influence, will be contemplating calmly Chisinau’s drift toward Moscow. However, we must be much more interested in the official Kyiv's position which needs allies in its standoff with Moscow.

Objective factors are pushing Ukraine to intensify relations with Moldova in all areas - political, economic, informational, and military. We are united by a common desire for European integration, which may well become a basis for common action. But it requires not only the efforts of the Ukrainian Embassy and the Foreign Ministry, but also of the Ukrainian authorities in general.