No resting on oars for Ukraine in gas war with Russia – experts

Ukraine has successfully rebuffed Gazprom, for the first time over the years of "gas war" between the two countries. But the victory can slip away if Kyiv chooses to rest on its oars.

Naftogaz might have won the latest round but experts warn that considering that Ukraine strongly depends on the transit of Russian gas and remains interested in its preservation, it is too early to cork champagne, the Novoe Vremya weekly reported.

It is noted that announcing the termination of all contracts with Naftogaz, Gazprom took the lead in escalating the conflict – the path they previously used in other disputes, rather successfully, too. The Russian monopoly seeks to minimize consequences of the Stockholm Arbitration award, forcing the Ukrainian side to sit down at the negotiating table.

Besides, Gazprom is pressing on Europe, putting the EU before a threat of a halt of transit via Ukraine, having thereby pointed out to Western partners the benefits of having pipes to deliver Russian gas bypassing Ukraine. It is about the existing Nord Stream gas pipeline with a capacity of about 55 billion cubic meters per year, laid from Russia to Germany along the bottom of the Baltic Sea. And it is also about its expansion, the Nord Stream 2, that is now under construction and that is expected to double the capacity of the initial project.

Read alsoTransit of Russian gas to EU via Ukraine stable – EC"So far, the opponents of the second pipeline are Poland, Baltic States, Scandinavia, the United States, and, in part, the European Union itself, which is trying to limit Russia's access to the EU market. And the Kremlin is trying in every way to persuade Western consumers to approve the pipeline construction. For Ukraine, Nord Stream 2 is extremely disadvantageous," the journalists said.

But all the same, according to the polled media analysts, the chances are significant that the Kremlin will tip the scales in its favor in the Nord Stream 2 case. It's about 50/50.

"That's why, for the official Kyiv it is better not to rely on the favorable decisions by Europeans in this regard, but to have a Plan B. To this end, Ukraine should create an international consortium for managing its gas transmission system (GTS) with the participation of companies interested in buying gas from the Russian Federation," the media stressed.

Read alsoUkraine's Naftogaz may sue Gazprom, againMeanwhile, Kyiv should also prepare for the worst. Experts fear that after Moscow did not get what they wanted by limiting gas flows, it is possible to expect sabotage or cyberattacks on the GTS. In this way, the Russians will try to prove the unreliability of the Ukrainian pipeline. Naftogaz has already strengthened security measures at the GTS infrastructure sites.

Another way out of the gas war with Moscow could be own production of gas in Ukraine. "We need to develop it and switch to a zero import formula instead of buying gas from abroad," says Roman Opimakh, Executive Director of the Association of Gas Producing Companies. In his opinion, Ukraine has a relevant potential.

Read alsoUkraine steps up security measures at GTS sites amid conflict with GazpromAccording to Yuriy Korolchuk of the Energy Strategy Fund, if the government does not ensure investments in the GTS through the arrival of a Western partner, if it fails to pursue a transparent policy in the sphere of issuing licenses for oil and gas production, the victory in the Stockholm Arbitration can be in vain.