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The economist says the year 2021 will be "a point of bifurcation," after which Ukraine may see stable growth.
Deputy Head at Strategic Advisory Group for Support of Ukraine Reforms, economist Pavlo Kukhta says economic growth in Ukraine in 2019 will slow compared with 2018; however, from 2020, Ukraine's GDP will begin to catch up with that of countries in Eastern Europe, growing by 4% or even more.
"This is a year of uncertainty for investors, for businesses, and for all those involved in the economy. So it's clear that next year the pace of economic growth will be slightly lower than this year. This is normal because the political risk is very high. If we pass it normally and the political risk is avoided, economic growth rates will increase again in 2020, as all forecasts signal this," he said, according to the Ukrainian online news outlet Obozrevatel.
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The expert calls 2019 the year of "double elections and political instability."
Kukhta mentioned the current growth rates of Ukraine's economy: "The latest figure we have in the second quarter of 2018 is 3.8% of GDP, that is almost 4% growth."
According to the expert, 4% is "the lower limit of Ukraine's norm."
"This is the lowest indicator that allows us to catch up with Eastern European countries. There is a wide gap between us, as they launched reforms in the early '90s and have been developing for twenty-five years, while we have been standing still," Kukhta said.
The expert emphasized that a 4% GDP growth is "the level, which we should reach and maintain as the basis for economic growth." And we are now almost reached it," he added.
In addition to the elections, Kukhta called another big risk for the country's economy in 2019, namely the peak of repayments on Ukraine's foreign debt.
"This year, next year, and in 2020, debt repayments pose a risk of macroeconomic instability, reining investment and economic growth in. But these payments will decline in 2021. We expect that the economy will grow by 4% and even more from 2021 if we don't make mistakes by that time. We will steadily adhere to reforms and European integration. The year 2021 is the point of bifurcation, after which we may see right and normal growth," he added.