UNIAN
The average forex rate of the hryvnia against the U.S. dollar in 2019 is projected at UAH 30.
The foreign exchange rate of the hryvnia against the U.S. dollar in Ukraine in 2019 will wobble around UAH 28.5-31.5 per U.S. dollar, Senior Analyst at Forex Club Andriy Shevchyshyn says.
"Seasonal factors of influence will remain, but their intensity may decrease," he told the online portal Obozrevatel. "The baseline scenario assumes a fairly wide amplitude of fluctuations, which is attributed to the influence of seasonal factors, speculations before payments on external debt obligations and elections."
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Change in the balance of payments, where imports remain fairly higher than exports (the deficit of the trade account is 3% of GDP) is a key factor and will be bridged at the expense of reserves and external borrowings, which will also be used to pay foreign debt liabilities.
Likely forecasts for the rate for 2019:
UAH 29.08 per U.S. dollar (the consensus forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development);
UAH 29.4 per U.S. dollar (the forecast used in the 2019 budget);
UAH 28.65 per U.S. dollar (IMF estimates).
According to Obozrevatel, the average forex rate of the hryvnia against the U.S. dollar in 2019 is projected at UAH 30, in 2010 at UAH 31.4, and in 2021 at UAH 31.8.
Earlier, economists forecast that the U.S. dollar would be sold for UAH 30 by the end of 2019.