REUTERS
The hryvnia is expected to drop to UAH 29.5 per dollar in 2020.
S&P Global Ratings predicts the hryvnia, Ukraine's national currency, will weaken against the U.S. dollar to UAH 28.6 by the end of 2019.
The hryvnia is expected to drop to UAH 29.5 per dollar in 2020, to UAH 30 in 2021, and to UAH 30.5 in 2022, according to the agency's press release available to UNIAN.
Ukraine's real GDP may grow by 2.5% in the current year, by 2.8% in 2020, and by 3% in 2021 and 2022 (each), S&P said.
According to the agency's forecasts, the inflation rate will be 8.1% in 2019, 7.5% in 2020, 7% in 2021, and 6% in 2022.
S&P says GDP per capita in Ukraine is the third lowest among the countries of Europe and the CIS, after Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
Low income explains significant labor migration from the country. It is noted that the number of Ukrainians working in Poland in 2018 increased by over 40%, to 1.7 million people.
According to S&P, Ukraine will need more investment to accelerate its economic growth. The investment last year accounted for a mere 19% of GDP, with a pre-crisis rate of 30% in 2007.
Another factor affecting the country's economic growth is weak lending to the banking sector. Thus, according to S&P, from 2014 to 2018, real growth in private sector lending declined by almost 65%.
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As UNIAN reported earlier, Ukraine's hryvnia in January-March 2019 strengthened by 1.7% against the U.S. dollar, to UAH 27.21 (at the official rate of the National Bank of Ukraine, NBU), while rising against the euro by 3.6%, to UAH 30.57.
The hryvnia's historic low against the U.S. dollar was at UAH 30.01 per U.S. dollar in February 2015.
The national budget of Ukraine for 2019 is based on the forecast rate at UAH 29.4 to the dollar by the end of 2019.
Ukraine's key lender, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), forecasts that the hryvnia, Ukraine's national currency may weaken to UAH 28.68 per U.S. dollar in 2019, from UAH 27.19 in 2018.
According to the expert consensus forecast compiled by UNIAN, the hryvnia exchange rate against the U.S. dollar at the end of 2019 is expected at UAH 30.