REUTERS
Temporary factors are to blame, the central bank says.
The actual inflation rate in Ukraine in April at 8.8% in annual terms slightly exceeded the forecast trajectory of the National Bank of Ukraine under the influence of temporary factors.
According to the NBU comments, among these factors are interruptions in the supply of petroleum products from Belarus, restrictions on the export of energy products to Ukraine announced by Russia, as well as the rise in panic demand for certain raw food products as a result of their limited supply.
At the same time, core inflation declined ahead of the forecast, in particular, under the influence of tight NBU monetary policy.
"The current dynamics of consumer inflation and its components reflect a temporary increase in the influence of supply factors, which led to somewhat higher growth rates in the prices of raw food products, as well as fuel," the commentary says.
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According to NBU estimates, the effect of these factors will be exhausted in the coming months, while inflation will continue to decline in line with the regulator's forecast and approach the target of 5% plus / minus 1 pp, which it will reach in 2020.
As UNIAN reported, inflation in Ukraine in April 2019 accelerated to 8.8% in annual terms.
The largest price increase was recorded for vegetables (47.1%). The state budget of Ukraine for 2019 is based on a macroeconomic forecast with real GDP growth of 3% with inflation at 7.4%.
The National Bank of Ukraine predicts a slowdown in inflation to 6.3% in 2019, while the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank say it will be 7.3%. According to the consensus forecast of experts polled by UNIAN, this year, consumer price growth in Ukraine is expected to slow down to 7.2%.