UNIAN
Ukraine’s central bank, the National Bank of Ukraine, has issued a more pessimistic forecast for the slump in GDP and inflation in the country in 2015, with GDP seen at 7.5% and inflation at 30%.
Earlier, the NBU projected the decline of Ukraine’s GDP in 2015 at 4-5%, with an inflation rate of 25-26%.
Ukraine’s GDP decline continued in the first quarter 2015 because of the ongoing military conflict in the east of the country, and a gradual recovery in economic growth is expected only in the second quarter of 2015, the NBU said.
According to the NBU’s latest estimates, the devaluation of hryvnia and increase in tariffs for housing and communal services was the cause of the deterioration of the consumer inflation forecast for the end of 2015 to 30%, with core inflation rising to 25%. The major price growth is expected to take place in the first half of this year, according to the NBU, while at the end of 2016 inflation will drop to 13%, with core inflation at 8%.
The NBU expects a surplus of balance of payments financial account in 2015-2016 due to receipt of new loans and the expected deferring in payments on sovereign Eurobonds upon restructuring.
According to the forecasts of the central bank, owing to these measures, foreign currency reserves in 2015 may grow to $18 billion - a level sufficient to cover more than three months of future imports.
The NBU forecast is based on a new lending program with the International Monetary Fund, which foresees the implementation of reforms in the financial, fiscal, energy and general economic fields.
The full text of the document will be published on the Web site of the National Bank of Ukraine on Thursday, April 2.
As UNIAN reported earlier, the decline in Ukraine’s GDP as a whole for 2014 compared to the previous year at constant 2010 prices, excluding occupied Crimea and part of the ATO zone, was 6.8%.
Nominal GDP for 2014 amounted to UAH 1.567 trillion, which in the prices of the previous year was UAH 1.365 trillion.
The growth in 2014 of the GDP deflator (a measure that reflects the real change in the prices of all goods and services) was 14.8% compared with the previous year.
In 2013, Ukraine's GDP growth was zero, while nominal GDP for the year amounted to USD 1.455 trillion.