REUTERS
The forex rate is projected at UAH 26.5-27 per U.S. dollar by the end of the year.
Ukrainian economist Maksym Prazdnykov forecasts Ukraine's hryvnia may weaken but it is unlikely to get as far as UAH 29.3 per U.S. dollar, which is stipulated in the national budget for 2019.
The expert projects the forex rate at UAH 26.5-27 per U.S. dollar by the end of the year, the Obozrevatel media outlet reported.
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"A few months ago, just before the presidential election, there were fears that the hryvnia would weaken, devalue; they mentioned such rates as UAH 28-30 per U.S. dollar with political risks taken into account. It's good that it did not happen – as of today we see the hryvnia strengthening to a certain level. Foreign currency is coming into the country, the hryvnia is getting stronger, the dollar is weakening," the economist said.
"There are a number of factors in the country now that are associated with a fairly large inflow of money since the beginning of the year on an ongoing basis. The money is invested in government bonds. The second factor is that our farmers show quite good results. Export grows and foreign currency gets into the country and imports are on the decline. Accordingly, the hryvnia gets stronger," he explained.
According to the expert, the National Bank can take advantage of the favorable situation and increase reserves, which will also ease the pressure on the exchange rate.
"The forecast as for the hryvnia is quite clear – this is revaluation, as was the case this summer, it will bounce back to a certain degree closer to autumn. With the current forex rate set at UAH 25.6 per U.S. dollar, it's unlikely to strengthen further. There will be a certain increase in imports, some external payments are scheduled by the end of the year. Accordingly, the hryvnia will see a certain drawdown," he said.
"It is already obvious that the average rate will not be UAH 29.3 per U.S. dollar. Yet, about UAH 26.5-27 per dollar is possible," he added.