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The country's economy has been growing for the 14th quarter in a row.
Senior Analyst at Raiffeisen Bank Aval Mykhailo Rebryk says Ukraine's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 4.6% in the second quarter of 2019 (Q2) year-over-year (y-o-y) exceeded all of the most optimistic expectations.
"The economy has been growing for the 14th quarter in a row, and this is great given the gradual 'cooling' of the global economy. Noteworthy, taking into account the dynamics of the key industries' output, this growth has exceeded our most optimistic expectations," he told UNIAN on August 16.
A sectoral breakdown of GDP growth has not been published yet, but agriculture, trade, construction, and transport sectors are likely to remain the traditional key drivers of growth, he said.
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According to Rebryk, a positive contribution can be expected from the service sector, in particular finance.
The expert added that due to the high yield and stable grain harvesting rate in June alone, agriculture showed a 12.2% growth y-o-y, despite a high comparative base. In total, Ukraine is expected to see a record grain harvest this year at 70.8 million tonnes against 70.1 million tonnes in 2018.
In addition, the retail trade boom is underway with the average monthly turnover in Q2 growing 10.3% y-o-y on a background of positive consumer sentiment.
A significant positive contribution to GDP growth may be expected from construction (+15.5% y-o-y, on average), passenger services (+4.7%) and freight transportation (+3.9%).
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Moreover, since February 2019, the extractive industry has been demonstrating a steady recovery (+3.9% on average).
In general, there was a 2.3% drop in the industrial output in June y-o-y, but according to the results of the first six months, the industrial output index remained positive (+ 0.5%), the expert added.
As UNIAN reported earlier, Ukraine's GDP rose by 4.6% in the second quarter of 2019 y-o-y, having accelerated from 2.5% in Q1 2019.
Ukraine's 2019 national budget is based on a 3% real GDP growth.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) raised its forecast for real GDP growth in 2019 to 3% from 2.5% projected before.
The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank project a 2.7% growth in Ukraine's economy in 2019.
According to the consensus forecast compiled by UNIAN based on experts' estimates, the country's economic growth in 2019 will slow to 2.8%.