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Financing of public order, security, and judiciary, including undistributed funds of the National Security and Defense Council, will increase the most in terms of their ratio to GDP.
Experts say major risks for the implementation of Ukraine's national budget for 2020 will be large debt payments, requiring significant amounts of new borrowings during the year.
This will require support from international financial organizations and the absence of external shocks, both political and economic ones, according to an analytical note submitted by the Center for Economic Strategy to UNIAN on October 16.
The experts noted a moderate state budget deficit, at the same time saying say it will grow by 1.3% in absolute terms, to UAH 95 billion (US$3.8 billion). However, due to economic growth, it will shrink by 2.1% to GDP.
Experts' forecast for budget revenue remains conservative and does not take into account the cabinet's ambitious goals to boost the economy by 5%-7%, like many other election initiatives of the president's team.
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Moreover, financing of public order, security, and judiciary, including undistributed funds of the National Security and Defense Council, will increase the most in terms of their ratio to GDP.
Experts say the government, within the budget, will refuse to provide aid to large-scale agricultural companies, while allocating funds to farmers and small-scale enterprises, including for reducing the cost of loans for land purchases.
They also admit that the target UAH 5 billion (US$201.4 million) in revenue from the sale of state-owned enterprises may be increased, given the declared intentions to unblock the large-scale privatization by year-ene.
As UNIAN reported earlier, Ukraine's Cabinet of Ministers submitted to parliament the draft law on the State Budget of Ukraine for 2020, which provides for UAH 1.079 trillion (US$43.5 billion) in revenue and UAH 1.170 trillion (US$47.1 billion) in expenses. The maximum deficit of the national budget is set at UAH 95 billion (US$3.8 billion), or 2.09% of GDP, while the state and government-guaranteed debt is fixed at 54.1% of GDP.
On September 20, the Verkhovna Rada accepted the government-drafted budget for consideration.
Parliament is expected to consider the bill in the first reading on Friday, October 18.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Oleksiy Honcharuk promised to submit an updated macro forecast before the end of October, which will become the main one for adjusting the draft national budget for next year.