No default or major hryvnia collapse expected in Ukraine over quarantine – expert

The expert noted that Ukraine had already experienced the economic crisis in 2014-2016, and this time it won't be worse than back then.

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The quarantine introduced across Ukraine in connection with the coronavirus prevention measures and the impending global crisis are unlikely to exceed challenges that our country has faced in recent years, so there will be no default or significant collapse of the hryvnia, Mykhailo Fedorov, an expert with Univer, has told UNIAN.

"Yields on government bonds, of course, will grow, but most likely they will be lower than in 2017-2018. As for the exchange rate, the corridor of UAH 27-28 to the dollar took into account military risks and very low business activity. And if the hryvnia simply returns to the old rate, this won't be a disaster," the expert emphasized.

He recalled that Ukraine had already survived the economic crisis in 2014-2016 with the physical loss of part of its economy, military operations, and panic.

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"This time it won't be worse than back then. Literally until 2018, economic activity was extremely low, but the country was able to achieve macroeconomic stability, and the economy began to recover," Fedorov added.

As UNIAN reported earlier, the Cabinet of Ministers approved restrictive measures amid the threat of a coronavirus epidemic in Ukraine and to prevent the spread of COVID-19, including quarantine in educational facilities for a period of three weeks, from March 12.

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