Experts revise downward grain harvest forecast for Ukraine

Experts say Ukraine may harvest 67.4 million tonnes of grain and leguminous crops in 2020, which is 7.7 million tonnes, or 10.3%, down from the record high harvest in 2019.

"This decline will be mainly due to a decrease in winter wheat production, to 24.2 million tonnes (12.5% down), maize for grain to 32.2 million tonnes (10.3% down), and barley to 8.1 million tonnes (8.7% down)," the press service of the National Scientific Center "Institute of Agrarian Economy" said on March 19.

At the same time, rye output in 2020 will grow to 355,400 tonnes (6.7% up), spring wheat to 696,800 tonnes (5.3% up), buckwheat to 96,400 tonnes (13.3% up) and peas to 687,400 tonnes (20.0% up).

Rice output will remain almost at the level of 2019, that is 54,500 tonnes (0.2% down).

Harvest of other grains is also expected to decline slightly. In particular, oat will shrink by 2%, while millet will slide 1.6%, the report said.

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Calculations have been made based on a low-case scenario. In fact, the decline in output may not be so critical.

"Taking into account the weather conditions and declining yields of the main crops last year, the forecast indicators were determined according to the low-case scenario, while under the average forecast, decrease in grain production will not exceed 3%," the press service said.

Experts emphasize that the projected decline in grain yields in 2020 is not critical for Ukraine, especially since they may only be lower than those of the last two years. So, this year's harvest would be able to cover not only the demand of the domestic market but also the country's exports.

As UNIAN reported earlier, Ukraine in 2019 harvested 75.1 million tonnes of grain, which was 4 million tonnes up on the figure reported in 2018.

In particular, Ukrainian farmers gathered 28.3 million tonnes of wheat (15% up), 35.8 million tonnes of maize for grain (0.1% up), and 8.9 million tonnes of barley (21.2% up).