Coronavirus crisis: economy ministry estimates potential GDP drop

The Cabinet of Ministers predicts that by the end of 2020, Ukrainian economy will fall by 4.8%.

"As we see this year, the economic decline will stand at 4.8% of GDP, including higher unemployment. Unemployment will be both temporary and permanent, based on the realities that are now taking shape. We forecast the unemployment rise this year at 9.4%," Minister for Development of Economy, Trade, and Agriculture Ihor Petrashko told a Kyiv briefing Wednesday.

Petrashko says the priority tasks for the government today are to keep in place as many jobs as possible, support those who have already lost their jobs, and ensure economic recovery once the coronavirus pandemic is over.

Some 364,000 unemployed have already been registered with social services as of today, which is 13% more than in 2019. The minister added that the government is expanding its assistance program for the unemployed, streamlining access to it.

An option is also being developed to expand the "5-7-9" program of concessional lending to businesses, while a broader program of assistance to industry is being prepared.

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Besides, the national budget has maintained support for farmers, while high-tech industries will see support through the state defense order.

As for medium-term plans, the Cabinet is preparing a program of amendments to public procurement.

"That's for Ukrainian producers and foreign enterprises manufacture their products in Ukraine to gain greater access to the state order, which is in line with best practices of the European Union and the United States," Petrashko said.

As UNIAN reported earlier, the growth of real GDP of Ukraine in the fourth quarter of 2019 amounted to 1.5% year-on-year, slowing down from 4.1% a quarter earlier.

According to the Ministry of Economy, in January-February 2020, the decline in GDP amounted to 0.2%. The ministry expects that coronavirus and measures to combat it will entail grave consequences for the national economy, especially in the first half of the year.