REUTERS
At the same time, if Ukraine strikes a new deal with the IMF, the regulator expects no sharp drop in the country's economy.
The National Bank has predicted a rough crisis scenario for Ukraine in case the country fails to seal a new cooperation program with its key lender, the International Monetary Fund.
Following a meeting via video link held between the regulator's leadership and members of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine, the National Bank will present an updated macro forecast on April 23.
"We expect that subject to the conclusion of a program of cooperation with the IMF, Ukraine will not repeat the scenario of 2009, when it was in the lead in terms of plunging GDP," reads the statement.
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"At the same time, macroeconomic scenarios without a program with the IMF are quite rough, including in terms of falling GDP," the central bank notes.
The NBU noted that thanks to the reforms launched throughout the previous years, the Ukrainian economy is now more balanced and prepared for the crisis. Besides, Ukraine is not so dependent on international tourism and production chains as many other countries are.
At the same time, the crisis reduced the cost of energy imports, while the demand for Ukrainian exports, primarily food products, will decrease slightly.
As UNIAN reported earlier, the World Bank has worsened the forecast for the Ukrainian economy, expecting it to fall 3.5% by 2020. The growth of Ukraine's real GDP in 2019 slowed to 3.2% from 3.4% in 2018, the highest indicator in the last seven years.
The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine approved an updated macroeconomic forecast for the current year, suggesting that the economy will fall by 3.9%, inflation – accelerate to 8.7%, and the average annual hryvnia exchange rate - stand at UAH 29.5 to the U.S. dollar.