REUTERS
In its updated socio-economic development forecast, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation predicts further decline in oil prices in 2015, according to the Russian newspaper Kommersant.
According to a new forecast, oil price in 2015-2016 is set at $50 per barrel to increase to $55 in 2017 and $60 in 2018. According to the previous forecast, oil price was predicted to grow from $52 per barrel in 2015 to $55 in 2016 and $60 in 2017.
Against this background, the Economy Ministry assumes that "oil shock" in August 2015 isn't over the finishing line yet - oil price in Q4 2015 is forecast at $38.7 per barrel, according to the report.
The Economy Ministry also predicts the ruble's exchange rate against the dollar at 70 RUB until the end of the year, followed by a sluggish "rebound."
The publication notes that previous forecasts were more optimistic, while the current updated forecast is more in line with non-governmental analysts' estimates regarding inflation, investment, GDP dynamics, industrial growth and balance of payments indicators.
Thus, according to the ministry's forecast, the average annual inflation will be 7.7% in 2016, 7% - at the end of the year, 5.5% - at the end of 2018. The real effective exchange rate in 2016 remains unchanged (weakening of 18.2% in 2015).
Investments in fixed assets are predicted to decrease by 1.5% in 2016, after a 10.8% decline in 2015. Real income of the population will rise mere 0.1%, retail turnover will increase by 0.7% (against 1.9% in August forecast), industrial production will be up by 0.6% (against previous forecast of 1.1%).
The Russian government is planned to consider the Economy Ministry forecast in the near future for further planning of the 2016-budget.