REUTERS
Moody's rating agency projects Russia's GDP will decline by 4% in 2015 and by 1% in 2016, Vice-President and Senior Analyst at Moody's Investors Service (Russian branch) Alexander Proklov said at Retail Risk Management 2015 Forum on Tuesday, Russian information agency TASS reported.
Earlier, Moody's forecast a 3% decline of Russia's GDP, according to the report.
The recession will last longer than it was in 2008-2009, Proklov said, adding that oil prices are expected to remain volatile and depressed between $50-60 per barrel next year, dragging down the Russian economy.
Moody's also expects the current sanctions policy will be maintained.
"We expect inflation to keep high next year as well amid current conditions. Meanwhile consumer spending will go further down," Proklov said.
Russia's Central Bank is unlikely to aggressively reduce its key interest rate due to high inflation, the expert added.
Moody's also expects Russian banks' non-performing loan ratio will reach the same level as during 2009 within a year.
Russian banks have seen their profits slump and loan quality deteriorate sharply since last year, reflecting an economic crisis driven by a collapse in oil prices and Western sanctions over the Ukraine conflict, according to the report.