Russia holding out of debt restructuring not to prevent Ukraine from entering foreign debt markets: expert

"The ‘Russian’ debt will not really prevent Ukraine from penetrating foreign markets in the future, even if the issue remains unresolved for a long time and will be decided in the courts.The upgrade of Ukraine’s ratings by S&P suggests that the issue of the ‘Russian’ debt is considered separately. Regarding the Russian debt, S&P has already registered default, so any payment or non-payment in December will not change anything. The international lenders, to some extent, take the unresolved issue with Russia “out of the brackets,” he said.

According to the expert, there are two scenarios in respect of the Russian loan -- either Ukraine pays $3 billion in December in case the IMF recognizes this debt as interstate, or litigation will ensue.

"With the 100% probability, they will sue. It is their right, and a logical action. The bonds were issued under the British legislation, so Russia will file suit with the British court, respectively. And there are no grounds to reject this lawsuit. It’s just that Ukraine will have also filed counterclaims by this time, related to the annexation of Crimea, and so on," he added.

Read alsoPutin: IMF could give Ukraine additional $3 bln to pay off debt to RussiaThe expert admitted that a court ruling might as well be in favor of the Russian side, judging from the history of such proceedings, but it may happen years later, while Russia lacks instruments to force our country to fulfill the court’s decision. "Russia has limited opportunities to seize Ukraine’s assets abroad. There are few such assets. They may try to arrest the presidential plane while it’s abroad, or the vehicles that belong exactly the state of Ukraine, but not private businesses, or other assets that belong to the state and are not protected by diplomatic immunity, and there’s actually few such assets," said Dubko.