telegraf.com.ua
International rating agency Fitch Ratings expects Ukraine's economy will contract by 11.6% in 2015, though it projects 1% GDP growth next year, which is slightly below the estimates of the Ukrainian government, according to a statement posted on the agency's website.
"Although real output has stabilized, with a 0.7% quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted rise in real GDP in 3Q, the economy will still contract on an annual basis by 11.6% in 2015, led by a 20% fall in consumption. Fitch believes a swift recovery is unlikely, projecting growth of 1% in 2016, compared with the government assumption of 2.4%," the statement reads.
In 2017, Fitch projects growth could reach 2%-3%.
At the same time, Fitch agreed with the National Bank's inflation target for 2016.
"A further gas tariff adjustment in 2016 will push up prices again but Fitch believes that the National Bank's 12% inflation target for 2016 is within reach, provided further exchange rate instability is avoided," the agency noted.
As UNIAN reported earlier, Fitch Ratings has upgraded Ukraine's long-term foreign currency issuer default rating to 'CCC' from 'RD' (Restricted Default) in connection with the completion of debt restructuring operation.
In addition, Fitch assumes that non-payment of the $3 billion bond maturing on December 20, 2015, which is held by Russia's National Wealth Fund, would not constitute a default under Fitch's Sovereign rating criteria. Fitch also assumes that any legal action resulting from non-payment of this debt does not hinder the servicing of newly issued external debt, according to the report.