REUTERS
The economic growth in Ukraine has contracted by 11.8% in the past ten months of 2015, with a decline projected to slow down to 10% at the end of the year with the industrial output dropping by 13.5%-13.7%, according to a report of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine on assessment of current macroeconomic trends.
Consolidated index of production of goods and services is said to have declined by 13.5% in January-October, while GDP decrease is estimated at 11.8% compared to a decline of 12.6% in September, according to the Ukrainian Economic Ministry.
Read alsoMoody's predicts roughly 2% per annum growth in Ukraine from 2016The ministry expects that the economic decline will slow down to about 10% until the end of the year, given positive trends of the real sector development. The decline in industrial output is expected at 13.5%-13.7%, in line with earlier projections.
Read alsoFitch expects 1% GDP growth in Ukraine in 2016
All economic branches of Ukraine, in particular, transport, mining and food industry, are showing positive trends in recovery, according to the ministry.
The decline in industrial production in ten months of the year is estimated at 15.4% against a drop of 16.6% in September, the ministry notes.
The positive trend has stemmed from slackening of hostilities in Donbas, increase in social allowances from September 1, and, consequently, upturn in households expectations, improved financial performance of economic entities, as well as a relative liberalization of the banking market. At the same time, among negative factors are a significant share of the shadow economy, falling prices in key Ukrainian markets and sluggish investment activity.
Read alsoMoody's upgrades Ukraine's sovereign rating to Caa3, outlook stableMain risks for Ukraine are the resumption of active hostilities in the east, the shortage of energy resources, a further drop in prices in world commodity markets, disequilibrium in the monetary and foreign exchange market, the ministry noted.
As UNIAN reported earlier, the National Bank of Ukraine sees Ukraine's GDP grow by 1% in the third quarter of 2015 compared to the second quarter – the assessment which is in line with that of the World Bank, one of Ukraine's major creditors.
The State Statistics Service reported the GDP decline slowed down to 14.6% in annual terms in the second quarter of 2015, against a decline of 17.2% in the previous quarter.
Read alsoWeek’s balance: economic growth, Russian embargo and NBU’s forex injectionsThe Cabinet of Ministers considers three main scenarios for Ukrainian economic development in 2015, with the country's GDP expected to drop within the range of 5.5%-11.9%.
The National Bank of Ukraine predicts the country's GDP will decrease by 7.5% in 2015.