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Ukrainian agriculture exporters are prepared to expand supplies to Turkey if Russia suspends trade over the downed warplane, Elizaveta Malyshko, grain market analyst at UkrAgroConsult, told UNIAN.
"Currently, we are not exporting much there. Russia ousted us from that market because it was offering wheat in small batches, which were convenient to supply. If there are any limitations [on Russian shipments], Ukraine can regain its position on the Turkish market," the expert said.
In the marketing year July 2014/June 2015, Ukraine exported 754,600 tonnes of grain to Turkey, with total grain imports by the country amounting to 9 million tonnes. Wheat and barley are staples of Ukrainian grain exports to Turkey. At the same time, Russia is the largest supplier of grain to Turkey. According to estimates, Russia is expected to supply 4 million tonnes of grain out of 5 million tonnes of the total imports to Turkey scheduled for the 2015-2016 season.
"If Turkey wants to buy those undersupplied four million tonnes from us, we will be only happy. That would mean higher prices. We will choose that customer offering more to pay," the analyst said.
A similar situation is on the sunflower oil market, said leading expert at UkrAgroConsult Yulia Harkavenko.
If Russia quits, Ukraine will be the main supplier of sunflower oil. They cannot find other supplier, because such volumes of export are offered by Ukraine only, and it [Ukraine] can easily redirect its volumes, given a short-distance transportation leg," the analyst said.
In the 2014-2015 marketing year, Turkey imported 880,000 tonnes of sunflower oil, of which Ukraine supplied 170,000 tonnes (19%) and the remaining deliveries were carried out by Russia.
In the past marketing year, Ukraine's supplies of oil seed meal accounted for 36% of the total volumes of imports of the product to Turkey, which reached 282,000 tonnes. The remaining volumes were delivered from Russia (about 49-54%) and other countries (10-15%). According to the analyst, Ukraine is also able to replace Russian supplies in this segment.
Experts say the deterioration of relations between Russia and Turkey following the downing of a Russian military aircraft can encourage Ukraine to expand supplies of its products onto the Turkish market.
In 2015, the gross harvest of grains and oilseeds in Ukraine is projected at 59.5-60 million tonnes, of which export is planned at more than 36 million tonnes.
In the 2014-2015 marketing year, Ukrainian agricultural producers exported 34.8 million tonnes of grain, a record high volume for the country. In the previous marketing year, Ukraine produced about 4.3 million tonnes of sunflower oil and exported about 3.9 million tonnes of the product.