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The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has downgraded its forecast as for economic growth in Ukraine in 2016 to 1.1% from an earlier 2.4% projection, and improved its assessment of the country's GDP decline in 2015 from 11.6% to 10.5%, according to the regulator's press service.
"Real GDP growth is projected at 1.1%. Not so optimistic economic recovery, as compared with the previous forecast, is attributed to lower-than-expected commodity prices on global markets, deterioration of the global economic outlook, new limitations in trade with Russia and transit shipments through its territory," the bank's statement reads.
Ukraine's main creditor, the IMF, forecasts a 9% economic decline at the end of 2015 and a 2% growth in 2016. The IMF forecast for inflation coincides with that of the Ukrainian government: 45.8% in 2015 and 12% in 2016. The World Bank is a bit more pessimistic in its forecasts. The Bank believes that Ukraine's economy will decline by 12% in 2015, with a 2016 increase not exceeding 1%.
The experts interviewed by UNIAN are generally positive about Ukraine's prospects of leaving the drop zone and starting growing. UNIAN's consensus forecast concludes that Ukraine's economy will grow by 1% next year.