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According to Russian Federal State Statistics Service, Russia's GDP in 2015 decreased by 3.7% after rising by 0.7% in 2014, while the nominal size of the economy is estimated at RUB 80.4 trillion ($1 – RUB 75), or $1.33 trillion compared with $2.05 trillion a year earlier based on the data of the Central Bank at the average annual exchange rate, according to Russian newspaper Vedomosti.
The crisis and the devaluation squeezed the dollar amount of the economy by a third, the report reads.
The added value increased only in four out of 16 main economic activities. It was reduced most in trade (wholesale and retail) – by 10.1%. First of all, it reflects the decline in domestic consumption, according to Nikolai Kondrashov of the Center for Development of Higher School of Economics.
It is the internal consumption that defined economic recession: it fell by 7.9% after rising by 1.4% in 2014 (including household consumption – by 10.1%, after rising by 1.7%). Gross capital formation contracted by 18.3% – three times more than in 2014.
Due to the decline in domestic demand (consumption and gross capital formation) the imports have also declined, which adds to the calculations of GDP. As a result, net exports remained the only source of support for economic growth.
Read alsoLithuania may join Ukraine on Silk Road heading for Asia to bypass RussiaBut the fall in domestic demand has taken much more from the economy – almost 10% (9.6%). Thus, in 2015, the drop in domestic demand, taking into account imports, led to a decline in GDP by 4.2% from 3.7%. In 2014, domestic demand in view of the demand for imports provided the economy with 1% of growth while the final outcome was 0.7%.
As a result, the share of final consumption declined in GDP (from 72.2 to 71.6%), as well as gross capital formation (from 21.2 to 20.4%).
Read alsoRussia's Gazprom considers stress scenarios of $20-25/barrelMost likely, there will be some recovery in industry stocks after last year's shutdowns, but it is unlikely to make GDP grow, said Vladimir Tikhomirov from Brokercreditservice Ltd. Stabilization (not even the growth) of the price of oil may make the economy turn, he said.