EBA President Fiala gives forecasts for Ukraine's IMF tranches this year

Tomas Fiala, the President of the European Business Association (EBA) and CEO of Dragon Capital, forecasts that Ukraine can get only two tranches this year from its key lender, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program, approved in March 2015.

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"We do not expect more than two tranches from the IMF," Fiala said an EBA General Meeting on Thursday, January 26.

However, he recalled that the IMF's current memorandum has a schedule of payments and it provides for four disbursements. "The memorandum suggests four tranches, but this [getting four disbursements per year] has never happened, and probably will not be the case this year," Fiala said.

Read alsoIMF may decide on Ukraine tranche in coming weeks – statementHe also mentioned that Ukraine had fulfilled all the requirements for obtaining the fourth tranche, which can be provided in February. "However, it will probably smaller than it was planned at $1 billion," Fiala said.

As UNIAN reported earlier, Ukraine has resumed cooperation with the IMF on the four-year Extended Fund Facility program worth $17.5 billion in September 2016, after more than a year's break. Under this program, Ukraine has already received three credit tranches, totaling $7.62 billion.

The IMF mission, working in Ukraine in November 2016, expressed its satisfaction with the reforms and agreed budget parameters for 2017. Kyiv hoped that there would be a meeting of the Fund's Board of Directors on the results of the mission's work, and the country would receive the fourth tranche of $1.3 billion. However, the meeting did not take place either in November or in December, although Ukraine has fulfilled all the recommendations of the Fund, both in terms of the adoption of the state budget for 2017 and the recovery of the banking system, as well as the nationalization of the country's largest bank PrivatBank.

The Finance Ministry expects that the meeting of the IMF Board of Directors on Ukraine's issues will be held in February. However, the Fund noted it could not specify the date of the meeting, but it may take place in the coming weeks. If the decision is positive, Ukraine can expect to receive the fourth tranche of about $1 billion. In addition, Ukraine and the IMF will sign a new Memorandum of Cooperation stipulating the next steps and key reforms necessary for the receipt of funds.

The memorandum, signed in September 2016, noted that Ukraine might receive another four credit tranches, under the program of cooperation, in the amount of about $5.4 billion in 2017, namely in February, May, August and November, besides the fourth tranche that was not obtained in late 2016. The fifth February credit tranche amounting to $1.98 billion was expected to be the most significant one. Subsequent tranches should be $1.3 billion in May and August each, as well as $735 million in November.

Support for Ukraine by international financial institutions, particularly the IMF and the G7 governments, remains very important in ensuring economic stability and effectiveness of the country's reforms.

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