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Ukrainian economists forecast that the Ukrainian hryvnia this fall will fall against world currencies.
According to various forecasts, by year-end, the U.S. dollar will cost UAH 27 - UAH 28.5. According to Olena Korobochna, executive director of Ukraine’s Independent Association of Banks, autumn is traditionally a period when the hryvnia value decreases slightly while the dollar grows, TSN news service reports.
"This is due to the start of the business season and the start of more active operations in the interbank foreign exchange market of companies that have obligations under external contracts. Accordingly, the increased demand for foreign currency puts pressure on the hryvnia exchange rate," the expert told TSN.
In the coming months, the banker expects the dollar exchange rate in the range of UAH 25.5 – UAH 26.5.
"Now the average rate since year-start is UAH 26.52 / USD. Many analysts forecast the rate at year-end in the range of UAH 27- UAH 28 / USD, therefore the average UAH 27.2 / USD, which was laid out in the 2017 budget, is quite likely," Korobkova said.
Read alsoHryvnia weakens to UAH 25.76 to dollar on interbank market"Given the current account status, we expect a smooth devaluation of the hryvnia. However, we are more optimistic about 2018, expecting the growth rate to UAH 28 – UAH 28.5 / USD," she added.
The executive Director at Blazer Foundation, Oleh Ustenko, suggests that by the end of the year, the rate will be UAH 28.5 per dollar, and this is provided there are no cataclysms.
"At the same time, if reforms are carried out active, if in the next year significant foreign direct investment will flow, we will be able to see the hryvnia strengthen to UAH 27 per dollar," the expert said.
Chief economist at Dragon Capital investment company Olena Belan said that the situation in the foreign exchange market was better than expected at the beginning of the year.
"Regarding the forecast of the exchange rate for 2018, ours are more optimistic than the government’s. Our average annual forecast for 2018 is UAH 27.3 per dollar. A slight devaluation of the hryvnia compared to this year is forecasted, first of all, because of the expected reduction in world prices for steel and ore and a slowdown in reforms," the expert said.
Read alsoIMF mission to arrive in Kyiv Sept 12 – source“But if Ukraine continues to implement reforms in the framework of cooperation with the IMF, the flow of capital into the country will continue. Then the hryvnia rate may be stronger than we now predict,” added Belan.
As UNIAN reported earlier, according to the NBU, the trend of the hryvnia strengthening against the U.S. dollar in the forex market increased in August. As of August 30, the official exchange rate of the national currency to the U.S. dollar strengthened by 1.8%.
Read alsoNBU sells $44 mln in auction Aug 31According to the National Bank of Ukraine, since the beginning of the year, the hryvnia official rate to the US dollar was up by 6.4%.
UNIAN memo. Today, on September 1, at the opening of trading, the quotes of the hryvnia against the U.S. dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market were set at UAH 25.67 / UAH 25.70 / USD.
The weighted average exchange rate of the hryvnia on the interbank market was set at UAH 25,6906 / USD at 10:30, according to the National Bank of Ukraine.
The state budget of Ukraine for 2017 provides for the average annual exchange rate of the hryvnia at around UAH 27 / USD.
The historical minimum of the Ukrainian hryvnia rate to the U.S. dollar was recorded in February 2015 at UAH 30.01 / USD.