Ukraine and Belarus have necessary technical potential and economic reasoning to implement energy transition and increase the share of "green" energy in the Final Energy Supply to 91% and 81% by 2050 correspondingly, as announced during the press-conference on November 14, 2017 in Bonn, Germany in the framework of the COP 23, Conference of the Parties to the UN Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
Modeling results were prepared by the Institute for Economic and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, in close cooperation with civil society organizations, public authorities, specialized in renewables, business associations, and independent experts and with the support of the Heinrich Boell Foundation in Ukraine.
Results show that in case of the implementation of the ambitious Revolutionary Scenario involving a significant reduction in energy consumption and intensive development of renewable energy sources [RES], Final Energy Consumption in Ukraine will decrease by 27% in 2050, and the share of energy received from RES will be 91%.
This shows that saved energy resource is the cheapest “resource”, and investments in saving are more feasible than those needed to produce additional electricity and heat to meet the needs of the population and economy as a whole. The electricity will be produced by all RES technologies that will be available in Ukraine until 2050, since they rapidly develop and become cheaper.
Read alsoOver 1,200 Ukrainian households install solar power systems since year-start
At the same time, political will to implement such the energy transition in Ukraine is not observed so far. As Oleksii Ryabchin, Member of the Parliament of Ukraine mentioned during the press-conference: “Only with strong commitments to reduce emissions, increase energy efficiency and decrease fossil fuels dependency from the Ukrainian government on the one side, and attracting investments and having access to a green finance on another, this scenario will have a chance for implementation. But we need this scenario to be implemented. Such energy development pattern will allow decentralization of the Ukrainian energy sector, what is highly needed from democracy perspective. And energy cooperatives and households will play crucial role here. In addition just transition can be ensured for workers of coal and nuclear industries until 2050.”
Read alsoGroysman: Ukraine to give up coal imports
The implementation of the Revolutionary scenario will result in radical reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions which in 2050 might amount only to 10% of the 1990 level (or 85 mln t СО2-equivalent), which corresponds to required efforts at the global level to achieve the goal of the Paris Agreement.
Read alsoUkraine sees boost in renewable energy projects