REUTERS
The public opinion polls also revealed changes on the labor market.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) says the introduction of the coronavirus-related quarantine in the country will not have a significant impact on the unemployment indicator for the first quarter of 2020 (Q1), but the rate may significantly rise, to 11.5%, in Q2.
"This assessment is based on the NBU's forecast for a decline in real GDP in the second quarter, as well as the results of [public] opinion polls to determine the number of people who previously worked but lost their jobs as a result of quarantine measures," the NBU said in its latest quarterly inflation report.
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At the same time, the NBU's estimates are adjusted for the assumption of a certain expansion of staff at enterprises that have seen increased demand for their commodities and services. The regulator also took into account the fact that some people who lost their jobs or were job seekers before the quarantine could give up plans to find a job.
The public opinion polls also revealed changes on the labor market, it said.
Thus, according to a survey conducted on March 25-30 among Ukrainians who had been employed before the quarantine, 35% continued to work normally, 29% remotely, 32% were on unpaid leaves, and the remaining 4% lost their jobs.
Another survey conducted in the same period shows that 10% of those who worked amid the quarantine have lost their jobs.
The number of job openings during the quarantine period has sharply declined, which may indicate that enterprises are mainly adjusting plans as for recruiting new employees.
"Most of all, the number of new vacancies decreased in the sectors that were hit hardest by the introduction of the quarantine, i.e. the services sector and retail trade. However, against the backdrop of a general economic deterioration and growing uncertainty, demand for labor has declined in other sectors," the NBU said.
The number of vacancies decreased the least, in particular in the IT sector, which is the most adapted to remote work (the share of remotely working employees in that sector increased from 10% to 90%), and in agriculture due to a traditional increase in demand for labor amid the sowing season.