Inflation in Ukraine accelerates to 2.4% in October

Consumer inflation in Ukraine in October 2020 compared to October 2019 accelerated to 2.4% against 2.3% in September 2020 year-on-year.

Consumer prices in October 2020 compared to September 2020 increased by 1%; they have grown by 2.7% since the beginning of the year, the country's State Statistics Service said on its website.

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In September 2020, inflation in September 2020 against September 2019 slid to 2.3% from 2.5% in August 2020 year-on-year, having returned to the March level.

At the same time, consumer prices in September 2020 increased by 0.5% compared to August of the same year.

Core inflation in September 2020 was 1.1%, after 0.1% in August and 0.1% deflation in July. Core inflation in annual terms fell from 3.2%, to 3.1%.

Price dynamics

• In October, prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 1.1%. In particular, prices of sugar and eggs grew most, by 22.9% and 22.7%, respectively. Prices of sunflower oil, lard, bread, milk, and dairy products, pasta, meat and meat products rose by 0.8-7.3%. At the same time, prices of fruit fell by 6.2%, those of rice, vegetables, fish and fish products decreased by 0.3-1.5%.
• Prices of alcoholic beverages and tobacco grew by 0.9%, which was linked with a rise in prices of tobacco alone by 1.8%.
• An increase in prices or tariffs for housing, water supply, electricity, natural gas and other types of fuel by 4.4% was mainly due to a rise in prices of natural gas by 18.2%, as well as heating tariffs by 3.5%.
• It is noted that prices of vehicles increased by 0.2%, primarily due to a rise in prices of cars by 1.4%, fuel and oils by 0.8%. At the same time, rates for transportation of passengers by rail fell by 5.0%.
• The Ukrainian State Statistics Service says the data is given without taking into account statistics from Russia-occupied parts of Ukraine, namely Crimea and Sevastopol, as well as separate regions in Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Inflation and NBU forecasts

• On August 3, 2020, the National Bank of Ukraine revised its inflation forecast for 2020 to 6% from 4.8% predicted earlier, while remaining within the target range of 5% +/- 1 percentage point (pp).
• According to the State Statistics Service, consumer inflation in Ukraine in July 2020 in annual terms (compared to July 2019) was 2.4%, as was the case in June this year.
• The National Bank of Ukraine predicts that inflation will enter the target range of 5% +/- 1 pp by the end of the year due to the gradual recovery of the global economy and the growth of energy prices.
• Consumer inflation in Ukraine in September 2020 in annual terms (compared to September 2019) was 2.3%, having slowed down from 2.5% in August 2020.
• The Ministry for Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture predicted an increase in inflation in Ukraine from the beginning of 2021.
• Inflation in Ukraine in 2019 slowed to 4.1% and became the lowest in the last six years.