Experts forecast 6% inflation in Ukraine in 2021

Head of Macro Research at ICU Serhiy Nikolaychuk says ICU experts forecast inflation in Ukraine at 6% in 2021.

He made the comment during an online conference on December 15, as reported by an UNIAN correspondent.

"Approximately at the end of the first quarter, we expect inflation to approach 6%, the cap of the target range," Nikolaychuk said.

Main causes behind price hikes

The expert says the increase in inflation will be influenced by such factors as rising global prices of food and energy resources, economic recovery starting from the first quarter of 2021, as well as growing minimum wages.

Read alsoWeek's balance: EU allocates EUR 600 mln for Ukraine, Cabinet decides to put country on lockdown in Jan, while inflation goes up"As before, we expect an inflation boost, which will be triggered by an increase in the minimum wage. However, it will be slightly smaller, as its second stage was rescheduled from July to December 2021," he said.

Background

• Consumer inflation in Ukraine in November 2020 vs November 2019 accelerated to 3.8% from 2.6% in October 2020 vs October 2019.
• The National Bank expects that inflation will be within the target range of 5% +/- 1 percentage point (pp) by the end of the year. Consumer prices may further grow in the coming months.