Analysts post projections for autumn's hryvnia rate

Analysts predict a gradual devaluation of the hryvnia, Ukraine's national currency, against the U.S. dollar in autumn.

The exchange rate is expected to range from UAH 27 to UAH 30 per dollar, as reported by the RBC Ukraine news agency.

According to the Eavex Capital Investment Company, the forecast corridor for the hryvnia rate to the U.S. currency for autumn will be from UAH 27.1 to UAH 28.4.

Read alsoFinance minister sees no prerequisites for hryvnia rate rise to UAH 30 per dollar"Considering the positive trend in the current account of Ukraine's balance of payments, namely, a record surplus of US$4.3 billion in the second quarter, it is quite possible to expect support for the hryvnia exchange rate from exporters," said Dmytro Churyn, head of the analytical department at Eavex Capital.

Fx rate to dollar forecast for autumn

However, analysts with the ICU Group expect slight hryvnia devaluation in autumn with the exchange rate to the dollar at UAH 29-30 by the end of the year.

According to the chief of the ICU macroeconomic research department, Serhiy Nikolaichuk, such expectations are associated with the projected purchases of imported products with the start of a new business season and the restoration of stocks in the context of normalization of supply logistics.

"Growth in household income and retail trade gives every reason to expect a surge in consumer imports in the near future. Also, the expected decline in prices for iron ore and weak demand in the European market for metal products are likely to affect export earnings," Nikolaichuk said.

According to forecasts of financial analysts, so far there is no reason for a sudden devaluation in the autumn of 2020. The hryvnia could collapse sharply in case of a political crisis or another lockdown due to the coronavirus.

Forex rate forecast: background

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts an exchange rate at UAH 30 per dollar for 2020.