IMF publishes outlook for Ukraine economy until year-end

The International Monetary Fund predicts that after a 4% decline in the gross domestic product in 2020,  Ukraine will see 4% growth in 2021, followed by a slowdown to 3.4% in 2022.

According to the Fund's World Economic Outlook (WEO), average annual inflation in Ukraine, after dropping to 2.7% in 2020, will go up to 7.9% in 2021, and then decrease to 6.8% in 2022.

Read alsoFinance Ministry reflects on steps required to succeed in IMF talksIt is noted that inflation at the end of 2021 will stand at 7.2%, and in late 2022 – at 6% compared to 5% in 2020.

According to new estimates, the current account surplus in 2020 at 4.3% of GDP will be replaced by deficit of 2.5% of GDP in 2021, which will change to the increase to 3.6% of GDP in 2022.

The IMF also predicts a decrease in unemployment in Ukraine from 9% last year to 8.6% this year and 8.4% next year.

The published document also contains macroeconomic estimates for 2026. In five years, they suggest, Ukraine's GDP will grow by 4% per year with an average annual inflation of 5% and a current account deficit of 3.8% of GDP.

Previous forecast

Earlier, the World Bank expected a moderate recovery of the Ukrainian economy in 2021 with GDP growth of 3.8%.