REUTERS
A decrease in Ukrainians' spending on travelling will more than offset the fall in amounts to be transferred by Ukrainians from abroad.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has lowered its forecast for remittances from Ukrainian labor migrants in 2020 amid the coronavirus quarantine, having projected a US$2.5 billion decline against the figure of the previous outlook, to US$10 billion.
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"The NBU has reviewed its forecast for migrant workers' remittances to US$10 billion from US$12.5 billion. The forecast assumes that most quarantine restrictions will have been lifted by the end of Q2 [the second quarter of] 2020," the regulator said on its website on April 30, referring to the latest quarterly inflation report.
According to experts, about 10% of migrant workers have returned to Ukraine during the quarantine. Another 10% who planned to leave for seasonal works in Q2 will not be able to do so. At the same time, incomes of those remaining abroad will decline as the host countries' economies will slow down.
"However, a decrease in Ukrainians' spending on travelling will more than offset the fall in the remittances," the NBU added.
As UNIAN reported earlier, the National Bank in March expected a US$0.5-1 billion decline in remittances to Ukraine from labor migrants caused by coronavirus lockdowns.