REUTERS
Central bank in June may revise its forecast for GDP slide.
Ukrainian economy, after falling this year by 5%, could grow by 4% annually in the years to come, says National Bank Governor Yakiv Smolii.
Speaking at the hearing of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Finance, Tax, and Customs Policy, Smolii noted that the national economy faced the current crisis in better condition than during the crises of 2008 and 2014.
Moderate inflation, an effective floating rate policy, forex liberalization, a low current account deficit, a significant stock of international reserves, a balanced fiscal policy, and a reformed banking sector, which had previously served as a catalyst for crises, have all contributed to this.
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"These achievements and reforms of the past years, rapid and effective action by the National Bank, as well as an anti-crisis fiscal policy – all of this, together, will guarantee that the Ukrainian economy falls by no more than 5% in 2020. Already in the third quarter, immediately after the quarantine lift, it will actively start to recover. Unemployment will then gradually decrease. In the coming years, we will see economic growth at 4%," Smolii said.
However, the NBU governor did not rule out that the regulator at a June meeting of its monetary committee could revise the forecast for GDP fall.
"We proceeded from the macro forecast that we examined in March, and we evaluated the situation in the Ukrainian economy and the economies with which we have trade relations, and what was happening on global commodity markets. This forecast could be revised at the next meeting of our monetary committee, which will be held in June, and it can be changed," the official said.
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As UNIAN reported earlier, the National Bank in April worsened the assessment of real GDP growth dynamics for 2020 from a 3.5% growth to a 5% drop.