Troop numbers and postures, although worrying, do not fit the template for an invasion, the analysts said.
Analysts of the Brussels-headquartered International Crisis Group (ICG) NGO believe a full-scale invasion of Russian troops into the territory of Ukraine is unlikely.
"Troop numbers and postures, although worrying, do not fit the template for an invasion," RFE/RL's Ukrainian bureau wrote, quoting the ICG's report.
According to analysts, "the troop build-up could set the stage for a standoff in which Ukraine has to choose between doing nothing in the face of repeated provocations and acting in response, which Moscow could take as an excuse to escalate further."
Experts say Russia, for its part, insists the troop movements are routine training exercises that threaten no one. But its deployment of paratroopers to Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014, and its establishment of a base camp at Voronezh, five hours' drive from Ukraine's eastern frontier, are not simple reshuffles.
Yet Russia's recent troop movements and rhetoric suggest it may be growing frustrated, and perhaps is trying to squeeze Ukraine into making concessions. Moscow may hope that a combination of force build-up and Russian rhetoric about "protecting citizens" will make Kyiv think twice about responding if Russian-backed forces, unbound by the ceasefire as it dissolves, seek tactical advantages, analysts say.
"Though the new outpost in Voronezh appears temporary, with the weather warming up, troops could stay there at least until Russian-Belarusian exercises scheduled for September. The Kremlin may hope that Western responses to the deployments demonstrate again that for all the rhetoric, no Western state will come to Ukraine's aid if it faces an escalating military threat," the ICG said.
In addition, analysts suggest Russia is trying to blackmail not Ukraine, but the West, and is closely watching how the states will react to its actions near the Ukrainian border. However, the experts have no answer as to why Russia is pulling up troops, because it "has sent mixed signals about the purpose of its military deployments."
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