Russian ruble plunge not to affect Ukraine's forex market - experts

The collapse of the Russian ruble after the introduction of a new package of U.S. sanctions against Russian companies, oligarchs and officials will not have a significant impact on Ukraine's forex market in the short term.

At the same time, the negative effect is possible in the future if Russia suffers a full-scale crisis, Ukrainian experts told UNIAN.

According to Yuriy Krokhmal, head of the department for sales of treasury products at OTP Bank, due to the fall in the exchange rate of the Russian ruble, the volume of export earnings inflow into Ukraine in rubles will decrease (if estimated in exchange to dollars) and, accordingly, the supply of foreign currency from exporters receiving such revenue will decrease as well.

"However, today, during the period of seasonal prevalence of foreign currency supply on the interbank currency market of Ukraine, the situation is unlikely to have a strong impact on the hryvnia exchange rate. In the future, a decrease in export earnings from the Russian Federation will reduce the ability of the National Bank of Ukraine to replenish reserves through the purchase of foreign currency from market," the expert predicts.

At the same time, he noted that in recent years the trade turnover between Ukraine and the Russian Federation had decreased significantly, also causing a significant decrease in the influence of the ruble on the hryvnia exchange rate.

Read alsoRusal shares plunge over 40% on U.S. sanctionsDeputy head of the Center for Economic Strategy, Maria Repko, noted that in recent years Ukraine's dependence on Russia had shrunk. "Short-term fluctuations of the ruble should not have a serious impact on the dynamics of the Ukrainian currency, since there is no direct or strong dependence between them. The medium-term impact, if a forex crisis unfolds in Russia, will be noticeable, but due to reorientation to other markets, it will obviously not be as painful as it would be a few years ago," the expert believes.

According to her, the potential financial crisis in Russia (if sanctions and ruble devaluation continue) in the medium term, will have a restrained negative impact on Ukrainian exports. "In the structure of exports of goods, Russia still holds a very significant share of 9%, and the weakening of the ruble, if it prevails, could lead to a decrease in sales of Ukrainian goods to Russia, but the situation will be much better than it would be, for example, in 2012 when Russia bought a quarter of all Ukrainian exports," Repko added.

Also, the expert assumes a negative impact on the volume of money transfers from Russia to Ukraine, which in 2017 amounted to $1.3 billion. "According to NBU's updated data, Poland gradually replaced Russia as the leader in the volume of transfers, and a visa-free regime will allow Ukrainian workers to reorient themselves. Even in 2013, even before the introduction of the visa-free regime, there was a turning point - Ukrainians began to visit Europe more often than Russia," noted Repko.

Read alsoRussia says it will respond firmly to new U.S. sanctions – mediaAs UNIAN reported earlier, on April 6, the United States imposed sanctions against seven Russian oligarchs and 12 companies belonging to them, as well as 17 Russian senior officials.