Ukraine remains extremely vulnerable to external shocks due to heavy debt burden – NBU

Ukraine is to pay over UAH 1.3 trillion (US$49.7 billion) to repay and service state and government-guaranteed debt from 2018 to 2022 inclusive.

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The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) says the country remains extremely vulnerable to external shocks because of a significant debt burden on the public sector in the medium-term outlook.

"Despite better indicators of external stability, Ukraine remains extremely vulnerable to external shocks, in particular, due to a significant debt burden on the public sector in the medium term," the NBU said when presenting major trends in the country's economy on April 24.

Read alsoUkraine's external debt repayments until 2022 estimated at US$24 bln – S&P

The central bank noted that the country's gross debt over the next 12 months would grow at the expense of the public sector. At the same time, payments by the government and the NBU on external liabilities were the main reason for a reduction in Ukraine's international reserves in the first quarter of 2018.

According to the regulator's forecasts, the budget deficit in 2018-2020 will remain within 2-3% of GDP, while the ratio of public debt to GDP will gradually decrease, approaching the threshold set at 60% of GDP.

The NBU called a possible halt to the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program with the International Monetary Fund, a forthcoming pre-election campaign and a possible large-scale global trade war as key risks Ukraine's economy is facing.

UNIAN memo. Ukraine is to pay UAH 1.303 trillion to repay and service state and government-guaranteed debt from 2018 to 2022 inclusive, according to the finance ministry.

Ukraine's state and government-guaranteed debt, estimated in U.S. dollars, rose by 7.5%, to $76.3 billion in 2017, while it grew by 11% in the hryvnia equivalent, to UAH 2.1 trillion, which is about 72% of GDP.

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