Ukraine's public and quasi-public external debt repayments over 2018-2021 are estimated at up to $24 billion.
"Ukraine still faces up to $24billion in public and quasi-public external debt repayments over 2018-2021. Without official creditor support, these external debt repayments would be extremely challenging to meet," S&P Global Ratings said in its research update on Ukraine published on April 20.
S&P emphasizes that the introduction of an anti-corruption court (ACC) and adjustment of gas tariffs are key reforms to unlock a fifth tranche under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which would boost foreign exchange reserves and unlock additional donor funds.
"Despite strong opposition by some parliamentarians and parties with vested interest, our base case is that the ACC will be established in line with the IMF EFF program requirements," the report said.
This is due to such factors as broad support from the general public and the need for quasi-public external debt repayments.
"Concluding energy reform and establishing the ACC would complement last year's pension reform and recent privatization legislation. Together these measures should be sufficient to conclude the fourth review. This would unlock the fifth tranche of $1.9 billion in IMF financing plus additional donor financing, namely about EUR 1.0 billion under the EU macrofinancial assistance and around $800 million in World Bank loans," the report said.
As UNIAN reported earlier, Ukraine's payments on the state and government-guaranteed debt in the next twenty-eight years (from 2018 to 2045 inclusive) will amount to UAH 3.045 trillion (US$116.5 billion).
Ukraine's state and government-guaranteed debt, estimated in U.S. dollars, rose by 7.5%, to $76.3 billion in 2017, while it grew by 11% in the hryvnia equivalent, to UAH 2.1 trillion, which is about 72% of GDP.