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The expert believes that the factors that influenced the hryvnia rate are no longer relevant.
Director of Economic Programs at Razumkov Centre Vasyl Yurchyshyn says the forex rate of the hryvnia, Ukraine's national currency, which is currently getting stronger, may weaken to UAH 27 per U.S. dollar before the end of 2019.
Read alsoNBU strengthens official forex rate to UAH 24.76 to dollar for Sept 18
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) set the official forex rate at UAH 24 per U.S. dollar for September 17.
The price of the dollar may break a record in the past three years, Razumkov told the Ukrainian online news outlet Obozrevatel on September 17.
This year, forex dynamics differ from previous periods. Traditionally, the hryvnia weakens from autumn to the new year, but there has been a break with tradition this year, the expert said.
"There is a slightly unusual situation this year. By the end of the year, the dollar may cost up to UAH 27. This should not lead to negative consequences," Yurchyshyn said.
According to the expert, the fulfillment of the budget should be smooth this year. The effect of the factors that made the national currency stronger is over. He predicts the situation will roll back by the end of 2019.
"There are several reasons associated with the influx of currency into Ukraine: the elections, as the currency comes during this period; significant receipts from those who work abroad; and income from non-residents on the government domestic loan bonds market. This is over US$3 billion. All three factors have already ceased their influence. We observe that the number of government domestic loan bonds owned by non-residents is declining," he said.
According to the economist, there is no reason to panic that the hryvnia exchange rate will strengthen to UAH 8 or UAH 10 per dollar. It is also not worth exaggerating budget risks, given the budget revenue.
"In the near future, given a foreign trade deficit, significant payments are expected, and the hryvnia will sag a little. The existing problems may be offset by such an ultra-high influx of government bonds. The increase in deficit is likely to take place," the economist summed up.