REUTERS
Expert views on the fate of Ukrainian GTS vary.
Ukrainian experts have shared their views on potential implications for Ukraine of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline completion.
In particular, Director of Energy Programs at the Razumkov Center Volodymyr Omelchenko suggests Russia would not completely abandon the Ukrainian GTS which would be used as balancing capacities during peaks, repair works or emergency situations, as reported by the RBC Ukraine news agency.
"The Russian Federation will not be able to ensure full implementation of its export contracts without the Ukrainian GTS," the expert claimed.
Read alsoPoland, Ukraine urge Biden to use all means to prevent Nord Stream 2 from completion – media
"A conditional quarter, or even below that, of our GTS' capacity will be used. It will turn from an income-generating business to a loss-making one," the expert said.
He predicts Russia will be able to justify its refusal to pursue gas transit through Ukraine due to a certain "accident."
"An accident could occur 'by chance' somewhere on the Russian section of the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod gas pipeline, and after the pipe is examined and could be concluded that the pipe's worn out and that it must be taken out of service, that is, the entire route," Honchar said.
Nord Stream 2: Background
The Nord Stream 2 project envisages the construction and operation of two gas pipeline branches with a total throughput capacity of 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year from the coast of Russia through the Baltic Sea to Germany. It should connect Russia's Ust-Lug and Germany's Greifswald. This new pipeline bypassing Ukraine is to be built next to the existing Nord Stream 1 pipeline.
The construction of the pipeline was expected to be completed before the end of 2019.
The pipeline will be 1,220 km long. The project is being implemented by Russia's Gazprom in alliance with European companies – ENGIE, OMV, Royal Dutch Shell, Uniper, and Wintershall. Ukraine stands against the construction of Nord Stream 2 as it will most likely lose its status of a gas transit country, while its potential revenue losses are estimated at US$3 billion annually. The project is also highly criticized by the U.S., Poland, and the Baltic States.
On November 4, 2020, the media reported that U.S. Congress wanted to expand sanctions against Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream.
On December 6, 2020, United States Charge d'Affaires to Germany Robin Quinville called on the EU and Germany to declare a moratorium on the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.
On December 9, 2020, the U.S. House of Representatives approved the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) with expanded restrictions against the Russian Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.
On December 11, 2020, the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline resumed.
On December 29, 2020, it became known that the House of Representatives overcame the-then President Donald Trump's veto on the U.S. defense budget with sanctions on Nord Stream 2.
The United States is urging European allies and private companies to halt works on Nord Stream 2, and is preparing broader sanctions against the Russian project in the coming weeks.
The U.S. Senate approved the U.S. defense budget for the fiscal year 2021, which provides for new sanctions against Russia's Nord Stream 2.
On January 7, 2021, a fund was established in Germany to support the completion of the Nord Stream 2 project.
On January 13, 2021, the U.S. Department of State notified European companies involved in the construction of Nord Stream 2 of the risk of imposing new sanctions.
On February 22, the United States has made changes to the Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) List of the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) by including a Russian-flagged vessel Fortuna involved in the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.