Ukraine's Economy Ministry issues its forecast for next three years

Ukraine's Ministry for Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture has issued an updated macroeconomic forecast for the next three years, where it predicts an increase in the country's gross domestic product (GDP) by 4.6% in 2021, by 4.3% in 2022, and by 4.7% in 2023.

The document is to be considered at a government meeting on Wednesday, July 29.

Projections for inflation

The forecast indicates that inflation in December 2021 will be 7.3%. The inflation rate in 2021 on the average is projected at 8.1%.

The inflation rate in December 2022 will be 6.2%. On the average in 2022, inflation is projected at 6.7%.

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The inflation rate in December 2023 will be 5.3%. On the average in 2023, the inflation rate is projected at 6%.

Change in average salaries

The average monthly salary in Ukraine in 2021 should be UAH 13,632 (nearly US$492); it will be UAH 15,414 (US$557) in 2022 and UAH 17,169 (US$620) in 2023.

Unemployment

The unemployment rate for the population aged 15 to 70 is projected at 9.2% in 2021, 8.5% in 2022 and 8% in 2023.

Exports and imports

Exports of Ukrainian goods are projected at US$60.175 billion in 2021, at US$64.018 billion in 2022, and US$69.284 billion in 2023.

At the same time, imports in 2021, 2022 and 2023 will amount to US$70.591 billion, US$77.661 billion, and US$86.28 billion.

Accordingly, the country's trade deficit will amount to US$10.416 billion in 2021, US$13.643 billion in 2022, and US$16.996 billion in 2023.

Chronology of events

• In the fall of 2019, the Economy Ministry published a macroeconomic forecast for 2020-2022, in which the average exchange rate for 2020 was expected at UAH 27 per U.S. dollar.
• On March 29, 2020, the Cabinet of Ministers approved an updated macroeconomic forecast, providing that the average annual forex rate of the national currency in 2020 will be UAH 29.5 per U.S. dollar.
• The updated macroeconomic forecast provided for a fall in GDP by 3.9% in 2020, an increase in inflation from 5.6 to 8.7%; an average monthly salary of UAH 11,000 (US$ 397), which, taking into account inflation, will not actually change compared to 2019. Unemployment was projected at 9.4%, 1.3% up on the previous forecast.