Pavlo Klimkin’s talks with Frank-Walter Steinmeier in Berlin in early June were fundamental in their nature. Russian Foreign Minister opened up his cards a bit in respect of Donbas. The NATO Summit in Warsaw could become a turning point not only for the Alliance in general, but also in its relations with its neighbors.

Germany which currently chairs the OSCE tries to play the first fiddle in the process of Donbas settlement. But besides the foreign policy interests, Europe’s most powerful nation has also some internal ones. At the next parliamentary elections in 2017, Chancellor Angela Merkel and Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier will directly compete, and this fact affects today’s public statements of German leaders. For example, during the traditional "Potsdam Dialog" this week, Steinmeier said Europe should be “smart when it comes to dealing with these sanctions” against Russia, stressing that the West does not seek to put its Russian partners on its knees.

Therefore, Pavel Klimkin at his meeting with Frank-Walter Steinmeier had to draw his attention to the obvious things. It was not only about the status of the visa-free regime for Ukraine, Georgia and Kosovo being stalled because of the European institutions seeking to first develop a mechanism to suspend visa waivers. Ukrainian minister called "counter-productive" the signals of the European officials toward Russia (Steinmeier is not alone in this regard, in fact) about a possible weakening of sanctions against Moscow. It is important though that Angela Merkel publicly said she saw no grounds for the easing of sanctions against Russia.

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It should be noted that the word "counter-productive" was also voiced in another capital – Moscow. This term was used by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov when describing the prospects of recognizing the self-proclaimed “DPR” and “LPR.” At the same time, he stressed that Russia "is not giving up on the south-east of Ukraine," saying on the part of the separatists that "Donbas will never accept the presence of peacekeepers." After such statements, there is no reason to rely on any serious success in the discussion of proposals for the deployment of the armed OSCE police mission in the east of Ukraine. Actually, just as there is no reason to believe Russia's policy toward Ukraine will change, because Lavrov and his boss Vladimir Putin still say Russians and Ukrainians are one nation.

The escalation of the Donbas conflict, which NSDC Secretary Oleksandr Turchynov rightly called "Black May" unpleasantly surprised  the U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt, who just a couple of months ago expressed confidence that the most dramatic moments in the confrontation in the east of Ukraine are already behind us. It is interesting that on the eve of a meeting of the Tripartite Contact Group in Minsk, which has long become an imitation of vigorous activity, Leonid Kuchma acknowledged that the United States are unlikely to initiate the change of a format of discussion on Donbas future, although it does affect the negotiations process in the Belarus capital.

The feelings of Mr.Pyatt, whose stay in Kyiv is coming to an end, may have an impact on the decisions that will be taken at a NATO Summit in Warsaw July 8-9. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stressed two important points: the North Atlantic Treaty Alliance is not interested in confrontation with Russia and intends to show its intentions to support its southern and eastern neighbors, among whom there is also Ukraine.

Yevgeny Magda

UNIAN in Google News

Immediately after returning to Ukraine, Nadia Savchenko became a political player, who will have to be taken into account by Ukraine’s more sophisticated politicians. Public statements by the minister of information policy produce a depressing effect. Intermediate parliamentary elections in single-mandate constituencies will be a dress rehearsal for the big electoral play.

The political situation in Ukraine can perk up sharply due to the return from the Russian dungeons of Nadia Savchenko. The long struggle for the most famous Ukrainian POW resulted last week in her exchange for two captured Russian GRU officers, who stopped playing the role of members of “LPR militia” immediately after their release and return to Russia. Hero of Ukraine Nadia Savchenko has shown reluctance to spend time on rehabilitation after hunger strikes in a Russian prison and a willingness to proceed with assisting the Ukrainian authorities in solving the problems of the army and the release of the remaining hostages.

Although Nadia Savchenko enjoys a high level of public trust, she is in no hurry to make staggering political statements. She explained her readiness to potentially run for president with the need to master the knowledge yet unknown to her. The process of her conversion from the heroine to an effective politician is rarely an instant action, as international experience shows. Nadia will have to work hard to find herself in the modern Ukrainian politics, where the number of those seeking to use her in their own interests is higher than the number of genuine allies.

Poroshenko awarded Savchenko with a Gold Star / Photo from UNIAN

Poroshenko can claim the exclusive role in Savchenko’s liberation but he also made it clear that he is not going to rest on laurels, intending to continue to fight for the release of the Ukrainian citizens who remain in captivity of the militants and the Russian Federation. The public will have to admit that the talks on the exchange will be more effective if held behind closed doors, while the process of the return of the hostages to their Homeland bears little resemblance to the conveyor belt.

The president is in no hurry to celebrate the second anniversary of his tenure, preferring to count it from the inauguration date. Probably, everything will be confined to a big presidential press conference, where the Head of State will not only be answering the questions about companies in offshore jurisdictions, but also report, for example, on the successful adoption of the judicial reform. However, in this regard, much depends on the Verkhovna Rada. But its political expediency traditionally takes precedence over the national interests.

The Government has approved its priority action plan for 2016, intending to ensure the growth of industrial production and the destruction of obstacles for doing business. Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman predictably relies on Rada’s support, which in today’s coalition format is more like a lottery.

Groysman predictably relies on the support of parliamentarians / Photo from UNIAN

It is not clear what are the hopes of the minister of information policy. The tone of his recent statements by Yuriy Stets casts doubt on the ability of his subordinates, whose small number seems to be a subject of his personal pride, to solve the problems of ensuring communication with the occupied Crimea and the militant-controlled areas of Donbas. The lack of adequate funding is a problem for all agencies, not only the Ministry of Information Policy, but only Yuriy Stets is trying to call it a single justification of the ministry’s inefficiency.

Political parties and self-nominated candidates have begun preparations for the elections in seven majority districts, which will be held July 17. Experts are already reporting signs of a dirty competition and the low turnout. But on a national scale, these small campaigns can become a dress rehearsal for the possible early parliamentary elections. This makes it possible to call the mid-summer elections a process that is more important than the outcome.

Yevgeny Magda

UNIAN in Google News