There ain`t no such thing as a free lunch

There ain`t no such thing as a free lunch

In the evening on January 12 the entire Kyiv political beau-monde was going nuts. All prestigious `spots` were filled with jubilant masses and their entourage, mostly of a regional origin.

In the evening on January 12 the entire Kyiv political beau-monde was going nuts. All prestigious `spots` were filled with jubilant masses and their entourage, mostly of a regional origin.

The winners compared January 12 with May 9. The enemy is defeated. It is time to celebrate.

However, through a severe hangover, the victors will suddenly realize: "We`re screwed, folks!"

It is difficult to say if it was someone from the `Orange` who opened the eyes of the `regionals` or maybe it was their own expert.

However, on January 12 Yanukovych got into such a mess which is only compared with an unforgettable November 2004. The party will be over and the understanding of what has happened is sure to follow.

What actually happened? The Anticrisis Coalition with the help of Yulia  Tymoshenko Bloc has actually suspended President Yushchenko from power.

Does Yanukovych and Co. feel better now? I doubt that!

Already in November Yushchenko was unable to take part in the decision-making. He was just getting in the way, being no obstacle for adoption of certain decrees and resolutions.

At the same time he was a kind of a political deo spray for the Donetsk clan, making western leaders accept Yanukovych as the PM. Reluctantly, the political world elite did that.

                           What is the situation like now?

The US Administration is unlikely to give a positive assessment of such actions of the Ukrainian government which has put down their protégé. They face future presidential election and still have enough problems in Iraq.

Official Moscow has even never considered Yushchenko a possible partner in a political dialogue.

Having taken away absolutely all authority of the executive power, the Anticrisis Coalition failed to notice it did assume the entire responsibility for the country, economical performance and social welfare of its citizens.

This social welfare is not particularly good now. It is going to worsen in the near future.

Now the shock from the new communal tariffs is somewhat virtual. However, in a couple of weeks the tariffs will become a reality. There are problems  with gas because of crisis in Turkmenistan. The shadow of default has  loomed on the horizon.

The thing is that they cannot tell enthusiastic people now that it is Yushchenko who is getting in the way of progress and the `Orange` who prevent Yanukovych from building a happy life and `improving of living standards right away`.

Now blue-and-white chiefs are directly responsible for the country, having no chances to shift the blame onto somebody else. Well, maybe by force of habit they will blame Yulia Tymoshenko.

The winners have not realized yet that this victory will not profit them. They did a hell of a job, though. The Anticrisis Coalition has overcome all legal obstacles that might appear on their way to power.

Overriding of presidential veto upon the Law on the Cabinet of Ministers is not the present for PM Yanukovych but for the future PM which will turn into Kanzler by that time.

Having assumed a full responsibility for the coming social-economic crisis, having run out the political resource in a dragged-out war with Yushchenko, having killed the only possibility of legitimation in a civilized world, they just cleared the road for successors.

That is not the whole story. Having voted for an imperative mandate, `donetskies` secured stability of regional branches of BYuT and SPU.

They rescued the abovementioned parties from their own pressure. Thus, Southern and Eastern branches of these parties are sure to live up to the next elections.

We should keep in mind it happened in the right time. Regional branches of BYuT and SPU became totally uncontrolled and unstructured. MPs started deserting the parties, unable to stand the temptation of the gravy or fearing for their own lives and the lives of their families.

                                        Quo prodest?

According to external features, a mittelspiel of a complex game has begun. The authors of the games managed to stay backstage.

To find them we must answer one simple question: Quo prodest? Who benefited from such an amazing gambit?

`Donetskies`? All their achievements are rather virtual. Well, unless they seriously take Yanukovych`s promises that he has come to power for 10 years. Well, really.

Someone might think that Yushchenko is the winner who got the chance to do nothing, and assuming no responsibility whatsoever, tell the people how he would change the situation if he had the authority.

But the thing is that Yushchenko`s voodoo has no effect at all now.

He will never get back people`s faith and trust. That will never happen. The only thing he had is people`s respect and fear for his title - the President of Ukraine. He has lost even this respect.

 

                    SOVIET PARLIAMENTARY REPUBLIC

Oleksandr Moroz scored many political points. He has got the chance to  make his dream come true - to turn Ukraine into a Soviet Parliamentary  Republic.

According to the Verkhovna Rada speaker, the republic is to be run by Politbureau of parliamentary factions, represented by their `stock-holders` and chaired by the speaker himself.

It is not clear if the main stock-holders consent to such table of ranks and for how long will they let him be on the top?

Maybe it is Tymoshenko who benefited from the situation? It is quite predictable that the entire president`s entourage headed by a clean-fingered Yuriy Lutsenko will start babbling about treachery of Maidan values again.

Their hysteria leaves the public cool. Petro Poroshenko`s ballads do not sound persuasive as well.

Tymoshenko`s real achievement is a new mechanism of a system structuring of her own political project.

At the second point, she cleared the road for herself to fight for power in the country in the legal field and on the personnel level.

At the third point, she remains the only promising politician in Ukraine.

                                         A SET PIECE

For the past to years Ukrainian politicians seemed to have no intellect. They substituted it with two effectual principles: "Money makes the world go round" and "birds of a feather flock together".

But it turned out they were intellectuals. If graduates of village schools are  gambling with smart people the results may be fairly amazing, in case they play some serious games.

ANALYSIS & COMMENTARY: by Taras Pastushenko

Original article in Ukrainian translated by Eugene Ivantsov

Ukrayinska Pravda (UP), Kyiv, Ukraine, January 18, 2007

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