The ruling parliament faction representative has decried suggestions as part of a propaganda campaign aimed to intimidate Ukrainians.
The likelihood of a Russian invasion of Ukraine will be the highest during the Zapad 2021 military exercises, believes Andrei Illarionov, a former adviser to Russian President Putin.
The offensive has more chances to be implemented once NATO maneuvers in Europe are over in July and the Nord Stream 2 gas pipe construction is completed, which could also be the case within the given timeframe, Illarionov told a panel show on 1+1 TV.
"And the highest probability – not a guarantee, but a probability – arises during the Zapad-2021 maneuvers," Illarionov said, speaking of the possible invasion dates.
"But I'd also like to draw your attention to the location: it's very likely North Tavria, where the bed passes of the North Crimea Canal leading to Crimea. The Russian side has been persistently pursuing a propaganda campaign claiming a 'humanitarian disaster' that's developing in Crimea over severed freshwater supplies. This territory is easy enough to occupy, and then it is very easy to hold ground there," suggests Illarionov.
He noted that "this can provide Crimea with fresh water, while the Yuzhnoukrainska Nuclear Power Plant and a number of other power stations are located there, which today generate a third of Ukraine's electricity volume."
"In addition, the far-western part [of the area] is the Kinburn Spit, which saw many battles in the 18-19 centuries. If the invaders come there, the entire Dnipro-Bug estuary will be shut [for Ukraine]. And then the two of Ukraine's largest ports – Kherson and Mykolaiv – will halt operations, together with the shipyards. If the aggressor does what the Russian media have been writing about, namely, captures an 80-kilometer strip from Ochakiv to Odesa, this poses a real threat of Ukraine losing access to the Black Sea," added the ex-adviser to Putin.
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People's Deputy with the ruling Servant of the People party faction, head of the Subcommittee on state security and defense at the parliamentary Committee on national security, defense and intelligence, Iryna Vereshchuk, decried such suggestions as "intimidation."
"I believe that this is an irrelevant presentation of information. If we had an authorized representative of the Ministry of Defense or the Armed Forces of Ukraine here in the studio, who would explain to those living in the south, those anxious after hearing such words, with the information presented in such a way, I'd call this discussion. But instead, it looks like an element of propaganda," MP said.
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