2018 is starting to shape up like 2013. President Petro Poroshenko consolidates his power by foot dragging on reforms promised to Western donors, then by harassing opponents, according to Diane Francis, a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center.
"Like the Yanukovych era, there is no rule of law, no parliamentary accountability, and no effective pursuit of corrupt officials or even of Yanukovych who stole billions," she wrote.
The expert noted that conditions resemble those that led to the 2004 and 2014 "street" revolutions, a situation that officials continuously say cannot be allowed because it would lead to instability and renewed Russian aggression.
"But if Ukrainians must take to the streets again, it will be different this time," Francis said.
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"This not only neutralizes Russia, but underpins any future street revolution should the current regime refuse to fully reform the country before the 2019 elections," she said.
Another difference is that the West, its governments and institutions, are solidly behind Ukrainian aspirations for a real democracy and just society.
"Another difference, should change come about through elections or otherwise, is that Ukraine would not be left in chaos as happened in 2014," the article says.
Ukraine has developed stronger financial institutions, important Western allies and expertise, and an "infrastructure of governance," consisting of hundreds of honest parliamentarians, executives, financiers, lawyers, activists, international donors and benefactors, and political leaders.
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