The expert named five criteria for a successful operation in eastern Ukraine, noting that, given poor relations between Russia and the West, the peacekeepers' chances to succeed are rather weak.
Richard Gowan, a fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, reflected on whether a UN-backed peacekeeping force could end the grinding war in eastern Ukraine that has claimed more than 10,000 lives.
"The Russians want something light. Ukraine would like a hefty U.N. force to quickly take control of the breakaway areas of the Donetsk basin, or Donbas — but recognizes that Russian-occupied Crimea is off-limits," Gowan wrote for The Washington Post.
The expert explored the lessons of past operations for a deployment in Donbas.
Such a force would aim to facilitate a cessation of hostilities, oversee local elections that Russia and Ukraine have agreed should be a precondition for a political settlement, and facilitate a transition culminating in the full restoration of Kyiv’s authority.
Gowan has named five criteria for a successful operation:
Read alsoU.S. questions how much it can trust Russia on peacekeepers in Ukraine
2) A credible military presence: Even with Moscow’s backing, peacekeeping missions could be at risk from militant campaigns. Some analysts argue that containing this threat would take 50,000 troops but such a force could be hard to generate, especially as Russia is likely to object to major NATO nations participating. A more tenable figure might be about 20,000 troops.
The exact numbers are less important than troop capabilities and commitment. The United States has lobbied Sweden to lead a force, and Stockholm has indicated wary interest. It might be necessary to cobble together a wider force from other Nordic states and more-distant options such as Mongolia, whose troops have performed courageously for the United Nations in South Sudan.
Read alsoPutin: Russia "not against" putting occupied Donbas under int'l control
4) A long-term civilian presence: Most peace operations now involve sizable civilian presences (10 to 20 percent of an overall deployment) charged with responsibilities including mission administration and governance reform. In Donbas, the civilian priority would be arranging local elections. While most military peacekeepers would hopefully leave the Donbas after a matter of years, deeper peace-building could take decades.
Read alsoDeputy Minister: "I consider enemies those calling to let go of Donbas
Ultimately, all peace operations are acts of political compromise. All sides have to accept second-best solutions to end a war. In the Donbas, a peacekeeping force will make sense only if both Moscow and Kiev want to make it work. If they do, and it is possible to find enough capable units, an operation should just about work. But with the West’s relations with Russia in constant turmoil, the odds are still daunting.