Moody's forecasts economic recovery in Ukraine in 2016-2017
Moody's international rating agency says it expects a resumption of economic growth in Ukraine in 2016 and 2017 after a cumulative real GDP fall of about 15% in the last two years, according to a posting on the agency's website.
"Moody's expects a slow growth rebound in 2016 and 2017, after a cumulative real GDP fall of roughly 15% in the last two years. In addition, the fiscal deficit is likely to remain within the budget target of 3.7% as required under the IMF-program because of reforms to the tax regime and the recent reduction of gas subsidies. That said, maintaining international financial support and continuing the incipient economic and fiscal recovery would require further progress on economic and political reforms, including on anti-corruption measures," the report said.
As UNIAN reported earlier, the International Monetary Fund, Ukraine's key creditor, has maintained its economic growth forecast for Ukraine in 2016 at 1.5% and inflation at 15.1%. The World Bank projects the Ukrainian economy will grow 1% and inflation will stay at 15%.
According to the expert consensus forecast compiled by UNIAN, Ukraine's economy will grow by 1% this year amid a 3% increase in industrial production and 19% inflation.
The data on Ukraine's GDP dynamics in Q1 of 2016 have not released yet, but experts estimate real GDP growth has amounted to about 1% year-to-year. The estimates are based on the industrial production figures in March, showing an increase in industrial production for the second consecutive month in Ukraine, however, the growth in March slowed to 4.8% from 7.6% in the previous month.