“A drop in the global demand for Ukrainian exports will increase the probability of moderate devaluation of the hryvnia, according to KyivWeekly. Most likely, by the end of autumn, the average sell rate of dollars in Ukraine will range within UAH 8 – UAH 8.25/US $1,” Director of the Information Analytical Center at Forex Club Ukraine Mykola Ivchenko remarked in a Komentari interview last week.
The rise in prices of Russian gas in Q4 2011 is an additional factor that will foster an increase in Ukraine’s foreign trade deficit and stimulate the outflow of hard currency from the country. The inconstancy of non-residents could also pose a threat: submitting to panic on world markets over the past month they have been actively selling T-bills to expropriate hard currency from Ukraine.
“Notwithstanding, we are unlikely to see the hryvnia sink below the mark of UAH 8.20-8.30/US $1. If necessary, the central bank of Ukraine will have sufficient possibilities to put out local fires,” in the meantime assured Director of the Treasury Department at First Ukrainian International Bank (PUMB) Anton Stadnyk.