Ukrainian scientists have presented a model assessment of the COVID-19 epidemic development in June 2020, according to estimates as of May 26.
The optimistic scenario suggests the total number of COVID-19 patients in Ukraine will reach 29,000 in late June, with some 950 casualties, said Ihor Brovchenko, Coordinator of the Working Group on Mathematical Modeling of Coronavirus Spread in Kyiv, Deputy Director of the Institute for Problems of Mathematical Machines and Systems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, who held a press conference on Thursday, an UNIAN correspondent reports.
"We have already passed the plateau phase, which lasted about two weeks, and where we've had a steady decline since May 10; that is, over the past two weeks we've had a small but steady decline. We draft our forecasts hoping that the trend prevails, but we understand that quarantine measures are being mitigated and this trend may not be maintained," he said.
Two scenarios for the contact level increase by 10% and 20% were examined, which may arise due to the quarantine relaxation.
According to the pessimistic scenario, if Ukraine returns to the plateau phase or a slight increase in the incidence, the total number of cases by late June will stand at 33,000, with 1,100 fatalities.
However, if the abolition of a number of quarantine restrictions doesn't affect the current incidence trends (optimistic scenario), the average daily number of new COVID-19 cases by end-June will be about 200, with 10 deaths and 250 recoveries.
The optimistic scenario suggests the total number of COVID-19 patients in Ukraine will reach 29,000 in late June, with some 950 casualties.
As UNIAN reported, as of May 28, a total of 22,382 coronavirus cases have been identified in Ukraine, with 477 recorded in the past 24 hours. Since the outburst of the pandemic, 8,439 people have recovered and 669 have died.