Ukraine's GDP will fall by 4.5% in 2020 as a result of global coronavirus-related shocks and following slower industrial growth recorded in late 2019 to early 2020.
The Bank is expecting Ukraine's economy to bounce back to growth of 5% in 2021, according to the latest macroeconomic survey published by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) on May 13, 2020.
The EBRD's Regional Economic Prospects report notes the "soaring cost of refinancing debt in international financial markets" for Ukraine.
A combination of reduced foreign demand and drop in domestic demand due to public health measures put in place to contain the spread of the virus took its toll on the manufacturing and services sectors, argues the report.
The Bank explains that the macro-financial fundamentals remain relatively strong and able to absorb external shocks with record-high level of foreign reserves and the lowest policy rate for six years.
As UNIAN reported earlier, National Bank Governor Yakiv Smolii said Ukrainian economy, after falling this year by 5%, could grow by 4% annually in the years to come.
The National Bank in April worsened the assessment of real GDP growth dynamics for 2020 from a 3.5% growth to a 5% drop.
UNIAN memo. The EBRD is a leading institutional investor in Ukraine and to date has committed more than EUR 14.54 billion in over 460 projects to the country.