The inauguration of Volodymyr Zelensky may actually not be held on May 19. And the reason may be the dismissal of the Chairman of the Constitutional Court, Stanislav Shevchuk.
The Standing Commission on Rules and Ethics of the Constitutional Court found grounds for the move. This is allegedly about "disciplinary misconduct, gross and systematic neglect of duties," reports said. And it seems that this situation is related to the desire of certain officials to gain control over the elections to the Verkhovna Rada.
The Bankova (Presidential Administration) has been looking for tools that would delay Zelensky's inauguration
If Shevchuk s sacked, this will mean that the inauguration of the president-elect will be delayed. After all, it is the head of the CCU (nobody else, only him) shall be there to accept the new president's oath. In addition, according to the law, the head of the CCU verifies that there are no barriers to the president's taking office (for example, it is about his possible commercial activity, something the lawyers call incompatibility with position).
It is possible that the dismissal of the head of the CCU may take place on May 14, when a special meeting of judges will consider the conclusion of the CCU Standing Commission on Rules and Ethics. But now the situation is gaining political colors.
The Bankova has been searching for tools that would delay Zelensky's inauguration. This is being done to prevent the dissolution of parliament by the new president after his inauguration.
However, it is unlikely that Volodymyr Zelensky will be interested in dissolving the Rada ahead of schedule. To secure the victory in parliamentary elections (which is the key task of the ZeTeam), the current parliament is needed as a partner, an ally, not as an opponent, which practically can make it impossible for the president to implement legislative initiatives. And in this regard, Zelensky has major appetite: the return of the Criminal Code article on illegal enrichment, appointments, and so on.
Now the priority of the ZeTeam is the formation of the vertical of the Presidential Administration and negotiations with the coalition in the Rada on the appointment of the heads of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Security Service of Ukraine, and the General Staff
That is, it is now advantageous for the president to keep working with the current convocation of the Rada, to seek consensus, and, if his initiatives fail, to claim that the old elites are slowing down the political process and dynamics of the president's proposals. This will allow him by autumn to have gained protest votes against the elites who are now forming a deputy corps.
In addition, for the sake of the victory in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of the "Servant of the People" party, it is necessary to form a network in the regions, to put their people in the regions, and, in the end, to form the list of candidates and majoritarian nominees. There is a lot of work to be done, which will take at least three to four months.
Thus, now the priority of the ZeTeam is the formation of the vertical of the Presidential Administration and negotiations with the coalition in the Rada on the appointment of the heads of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Security Service of Ukraine, and the General Staff. Therefore, it is unlikely that the early dissolution of the Rada will be lobbied.
At the same time, early parliamentary elections may be of interest to today's opposition parties, especially the Boyko and Medvedchuk's. Boyko's outcome at the presidential election obviously inspired him to achieve an even greater result in parliamentary elections. And, while the situation is advantageous, "steel must be forged".
In addition, "candidates on the go" may have good chances for early elections. They are the ones who also enjoyed great support in the presidential election. It is about Ihor Smeshko and his SICH" party.
Then there are Tymoshenko, Hrytsenko, and Liashko, who, despite having lost their rating, will gain momentum. After all, the result obtained at the presidential vote is the starting point for the parliamentary elections.
Returning to the question of the possible dismissal of the chairman of the Constitutional Court, this seems not so much a requirement of time but rather a technology of influence on political processes.
Taras Semeniuk is an analyst with KyivStratPro
