How is re-election to Rada dangerous?

Perhaps the most intriguing question in the upcoming political season is whether there will be snap parliamentary elections in 2016 or not. For the country in the state of war, this scenario is the most unsuitable and dangerous. It seems that the political elite, which came to power after the execution of the Maidan’s Heavenly Hundred and the death of thousands of fighters in the eastern front, should be well aware of this fact.

A much better option is no elections, and a strong coalition together with the government promoting economic reforms and fighting corruption. By the way, wasn’t it what U.S. Vice President Joe Biden called for in his historic address to the Ukrainian parliament?

But unfortunately, it’s highly unlikely that the country will go with the second, much-needed, option.

Too high is a desire of the President and most members of the pro-presidential forces to secure resignation of Ukraine’s PM Arseniy Yatsenyuk at any cost.

First it was about minor intrigue or blackmail. Just like when the Ministry of Finance would draft the new tax legislation, but the MPs from the Bloc of Petro Poroshenko would block the proposed amendments… And who knows how much this comedy would have lasted, had the IMF and the world’s leading powers not insisted to endorse the government-proposed concept of tax reform.

What was even more ridiculous, in early December, ahead of the end of the term of the government’s inviolability, a rather strange campaign hit the country with "Run, Rabbit, Run" [a hint at the PM’s derogatory nickname] billboards becoming an Internet meme.

But it turned out that the “rabbit” was anything but frightened and stood firmly on his feet despite this massive campaign.

Then there was that disgraceful episode with the MP from the pro-presidential BPP faction grabbing Yatsenyuk and trying to shove him down from the Rada’s podium (just a few days after Biden’s visit). Of course, this savage act was publically condemned, and the extravagant MP was immediately expelled from the faction (although the website of the Verkhovna Rada he is still listed as an honorary member of the pro-presidential force).

I remember that some pro-Yatsenyuk MPs even went to meet with the President, and some say, the Head of the State pledged peaceful coexistence in friendship.

He did so, and for some reason invited the high-profile Odesa governor Mikheil Saakashvili to the meeting of the National Council of Reforms. We all saw the nasty outcome of that meeting, as the official got into a verbal spat with Interior Minister Arsen Avakov, with the latter throwing a glass of water at his opponent.

Then there came more assurances of friendship. However, there was just enough "friendship" to adopt the tax changes and the budget for 2016. Then it all shattered into pieces again. Different parts of the coalition started putting forward different requirements, showering each other with mutual accusations.

And then, at the very end of 2015, the head of the BPP faction, Yuriy Lutsenko voiced a threatening key message: Bloc of Petro Poroshenko is ready for both for a change of government, and the re-election of the parliament.

But the very next day Yatsenyuk said that he was not going to resign, but ready to accept any decision of the Verkhovna Rada. However, this means that his political force will not be included in the new coalition. And if so, it is likely that there will be no coalition in parliament whatsoever. In this case, the elections will be inevitable. That is, the country steps on a very dangerous path. The populists of all sorts – from the heart-shaped [pro-Tymoshenko] to the Radical ones [pro-Lyashko] will re-emerge on TV screens. In such troubled times, we may forget about reforms for at least six months. And it’s only if the new Cabinet will be formed swiftly, which would get the things together and finds common language with Ukraine’s key creditor – the International Monetary Fund.

Needless to say that the investors will halt activity in anticipation of change, the hryvnia will depreciate further, while the prices will soar... And there is no guarantee that the new Prime Minister will get along with the President.

Analyzing the inevitable economic consequences of early parliamentary elections, it makes me wonder, how is that the pro-presidential faction takes the idea so light-heartedly.

Are their minds clouded with the ratings? Indeed, BPP may still be comfortable enough, while Yatsenyuk’s political force’s ratings are close to zero. Besides, the recent polls by the Democratic Initiatives Foundation show that 43.4% of Ukrainians do not support the idea of snap election to the Verkhovna Rada?

... Not to mention the fact that the very elections may bring unpleasant surprises as early as at stage of the counting votes. Just remember of 2006...